I'm looking for quantitative definitions not Grand-ma's recipes. Nor I want to forget about any instruments. Given the instrument, EUR/USD, ZAR/JPY or USD/CNH, how to estimate the trend? I don't care it is obvious or not. I don't care the ...

Quantitative Technical Analysis

This is also one of the reasons why I'd like to do what I'm doing: when the noise level is high, some people increase their SL in response to the incertainty due to the volatility others just don't enter. Instead I'd like to estimate the amplitude ...

Quantitative Technical Analysis

Because I try to quantify the elements of technical analysis I have to postulate the existance of the trends. As I wrote above the quant has no other choice than trusting his model.Here this is not a very risky bet. In the paper you posted the ...

Quantitative Technical Analysis

for example 6 red and 4 black with the total of 10 shot....so what is the problem?if i bet on red "in this session" i was for sure winner. Only correct thanks to the hindsight. You couldn't know in advance there will be more red or more black. ...

Just a stupid question! What happens if I do the opposite?

Yes all the answers are in those threads. Look at the equity curve you posted. The scaling is quite weird and makes it hard to read the values but I more or less could read that you started with $1000 and the account dropped to 150. There are more ...

Just a stupid question! What happens if I do the opposite?

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Just a stupid question! What happens if I do the opposite?

Sorry but I don't understand your point at all. It is all nonsense to me. The various MAs are low pass filters. The purpose of a lowpass filter is to remove the frequencies higher than the cutoff frequency in an input signal. A low pass filter is ...

Can statistical methods be used to create a trading strategy?

This is Redlion's null hypothesis in his thread "why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?"

Can statistical methods be used to create a trading strategy?

My point is that you need to con 75000 retailers with their average 2k account just to cover the initial CAPEX of opening a brokerage company! That's doesn't make sense to hire marketing people to steal your clients in oder to just pay the salary of ...

95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

MCRotter was talking about the return of the strategy not of the market. The returns of the strategies often follow a normal distribution with a means near zero, positive if the system is profitable. Or it may be a bimodal mixture of gaussian with a ...

Can statistical methods be used to create a trading strategy?

I was refering to a regulated broker in western countries, not a P.O box on a microscopic island. I know that the guarantee for a regulated broker in the USA is around $20M, just to get the paper that allows him to say "I'm a broker". After you need ...

95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

Hmm a broker in the USA needs $20M just to get the license. Then he needs the IT backend and the people to run the machines. Then the powerful marketing machine to lure the suckers... How many $1k suckers do they need just to survive the first year? ...

95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

Reading your answer I fully agree with Adal who says that what is important is "what to do with the data after you've filtered it". You seem to put a lot of importance on the attenuation. From what I read you need a very strong attenuation in the ...

Can statistical methods be used to create a trading strategy?

Reading these stats as they are given leads to wrong conclusions. It think this is made on purpose: to give real information while expecting people to draw themselves the wrong conclusion is marketing 101. Say you have two traders A and B. A was in ...

95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

This part is quite strange. All the MAs are lowpass filters. Any causal lowpass will always let some undesired frequencies go through. Any causal lowpass will always have group delay (lag). Also the EMA is a IIR lowpass filter (the simplest one). ...

Can statistical methods be used to create a trading strategy?

What is that green histogram which peaks exactly at the same time there is a dent in the equity curve if that's not a massive increase of the lot size? Can you post or link to the result of the trades, grouped by instrument, in pips, that is before ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Great you were able to make a martingale survive two months! Congrat's but the record in FF in 7 years thus far. What is this supposed to prove?

Do you believe this market is random?

A great post here! Just that sometimes market post in Russian (the effect of the volatility clustering). The good thing is that when it does so you can bet the next answer has a good chance to be in Russian too. Until someone post that he gets ...

Do you believe this market is random?

That's a valid explanation. When I was reading Osler's paper I thought that if I had the money to push the market I would perhaps try to enter a swing just a few pips before the S/R the opposite traders are targetting. If I get a slippage their TP ...

Do you believe this market is random?