Excellent thread! I think this really gets into the realm of epistemology. Most people accept empiricism so if you have a winning demo track record or your system is backtesting well you could probably trust yourself on that basis. However, ...

How do you learn to trust yourself in trading?

Guess we'll have to up the champagne budget when we're celebrating all our winnings.

Tariffs, trade war, and gold

With all due respect, I'm not so sure I agree there. I've spent some time thinking about locking in a little profit or moving SL to BE and couldn't really come up with a good reason to do it. It seems to me like your BE point is somewhat arbitrary ...

4 + 1 (Metals) strategy

That may be my all-time favorite market quote. Keynes' trading is super interesting too. His General Theory revolutionized economics, but not as many people know he also wrote A Treatise on Probability. You'd think the worlds best economist with an ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Right now I'm feeling blessed for having my accounts at all time highs. It was another great week for me, hope you guys did well too.

Gold RIGHT NOW

(For this post, you need a decent understanding of options greeks to follow. If you don't then I suggest reading up on it here. If you want a more in depth understanding of options I highly recommend purchasing this book.) I see there's been a lot ...

Metals (data) Mining

This is easily a 30 hour project so I'm going to have to put it on hold, just too busy at the moment.

Metals (data) Mining

I concur. The necessity for 25bps is even questionable. Powell and Co run the risk of fueling asset bubbles with the drop, but I suppose that's a better outcome than a recession which is probably what we're in store for either way.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Thanks Don! I have to admit most of the gain was just an educated guess that ES might get back up to 3,000. Barring a very extraordinary time like March 2009, there's no way I could take on the kind of risk needed to gain this much in a week with a ...

Metal Competition Zone (Demo)

I'm up 20.2% for the week and flat. Not sure I can do better than that.

Metal Competition Zone (Demo)

I winded up closing out of this at a small profit. Starting to look like the hurricane won't be too bad so I'm not sure if there's much upside left in energy. I'm up 18% so I believe that puts me in 3rd currently.

Metal Competition Zone (Demo)

I’m curious what their policy on scalping is. With moves like that, they’re just begging to be arbbed.

broker stop-hunted my palladium trade

That's a fair point, but I think it is generally truer over longer time frames. Intraday I'd think a stronger dollar, as measured by other currencies, would have to mean cheaper gold simply due to the arbitrage opportunity that would arise.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Absolutely. He'll probably do his best not to rock the market, but he's going to have to choose his words extra carefully because the whole world will be watching.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Trade idea for the week... I'm going to get long some Nat Gas ahead of this hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I got burned on a trade like this before in real life so it's not something I'd do again with real money. However, since only demo dollars ...

Metal Competition Zone (Demo)

Looks like we've got ourselves a competition.

Metal Competition Zone (Demo)

Up 3% for the week now. Who else is positive?

Metal Competition Zone (Demo)

Not a bad idea. If Powell comes out tomorrow suggesting no rate cut we could see 1,368 near term. Plus, even if you get stopped out you've got a good R:R so I like the trade either way.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Right now, I think the markets want to see what Powell has to say tomorrow morning before committing to a direction. If he hints at no rate cut, watch out below for gold.

Gold RIGHT NOW