This is exactly this. If I ask you if GBP/MNX is going up or down I bet you never trade this pair and you have no clue. Instinctively you'll open a weekly or daily chart and you start having a little bias. This is the basement of the Bayesian ...

Is random really random?

The point is that this illusion will last in time. If you're long and the price goes up you make money. Is the reason why the price moved up makes you more or less money? No. The fair coin analogy has some limits. The coin only gives heads or tails ...

Is random really random?

I wonder why no more people play Russian Roulette. You can play as many times as you want you will never lose more than once. Probabilities look very good!

Is random really random?

So the whole point of your post was to NOT be understood?

Is random really random?

What made me look at your thread is that I don't know the answer to this. It comes down to the management of open positions which led me to open the Expectancy Management url thread. If you want to try out the millipede idea keep in mind that ...

Is Never closing any trade a good idea?

But isn't the money flow changing itself in a pretty random fashion? When will be the next worldwide recession? When will the FED decide a new QE? What time of the day will the next BoJ intervention on the Dragon? ...

Is random really random?

Sorry I just don't get anything.

Is random really random?

Did you read Building an equity millipede ( url It is exactly about this. When you long 1 lot and short 3 lots that's the same as closing the long and going short 2 lots. So you do close the trade on a practical point of view. You pay more swap. ...

Is Never closing any trade a good idea?

1- U D D D D U U U U U D D D D U D U U U U D D D D D D D D D D D D 2- D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U 3- D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U 4- D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D ...

Is random really random?

I agree with this Prox'

Is random really random?

Overall it is but locally in time I agree it can't. All the speculators and stop hunters in the world can't go against a world wide recession.

Is random really random?

No the guy said NOTHING random. His quote will be 100% acurate to the very pipette. EDIT: but I think he won't post and keep the $4 trillions for himself.

Is random really random?

Greatest news ever! What will be the price EUR/USD 28th of August 2014 10:00:00am GMT please?

Is random really random?

We don't care and it isn't the purpose of my post. I said IF the market is random. Moreover I showed here url that trends in the markets are even more stable than trends in a random walk generated from the same distribution as the one of the ...

Is random really random?

If the market is completely random then follow the trend! Why? Because if you assume that the market is a random walk then the probability of UP and DOWN moves has to be the same. Proof: if there is a skewness in the probability distribution a ...

Is random really random?

You need to open/close a trade within the 15 days. Just login isn't enough. (That's what they write in the email you get with the credentials.)

Dukascopy historic data

What periods range do you focus on?

Cycle measurement: the easy way

By "lag" I mean what any trader in the forum understands: the delay in samples (bars) between the input and the output. For instance a SMA20 lags 10 bars. I consider the worse group delay in the band pass because the phase response isn't linear. ...

Cycle measurement: the easy way

The guy also provides an old excel version: url

A statistical question for professionals

percent symbol? You mean the sigma? It is the summation operator. m and y are the indexes for the summation. In the middle you have a white panel and three yellow cells. Note that you have to enter the chance of losing instead of the winrate in the ...

A statistical question for professionals