You can also let the market decide the period of your MA by adapting it to the duration of the recent swings. Below is E/U daily with an EMA which period changes based on the duration of the previous 4 swings. image

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

If a pair moves in straight line it is not volatile. The volatility is the variance around the straight line.

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

You wanted to trade RUB for its crazy super high volatility (sic!) and now G/U is too volatile...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

You say want to use fundamental data (=the cause of the trend) to predict the trend. The problem I see is that when a news is released its effects are usually already in the chart. The big boys pay people to analyse/survey/investigate. They know the ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

A- implies both B- and C-

Rel's Lab

Is this a range bar chart? I ask because there are wicks both sides of the candles and this isn't possible with range bars.

Rel's Lab

Forget about those bullshit contests! Take 100 morons who never saw a price chart before and let them over leverage a demo account for two weeks you'll for sure get one or two who x10 the account. Just random luck. Let those "exceptional" traders ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

Yes a high win rate is required otherwise you'll get strings of losers which lead to bigger DD. To accomodate N losers you'll have to decrease the risk per trade. This goes against the huge return in a short time unless you get an amazing number of ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

Do you mean that if enough people tell you elephants can fly you'll throw those animals by a cliff until success or lack of elephants? By requiring 1000%/mn and 8% max DD, the constraints impose some of the answers in the poll and these answers ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

Thanks for the answer about the size of the range. It looks like 10 pips is a good rule of thumb for the majors. I was a bit curious and decided to do some data mining with the swings. I extended your definition to include the case where two swings ...

Rel's Lab

You said "1-The bars are created using a "significant" value, to determine the best range bar value to use." How do you determine this value? I also have my own version of the zigzag. Here are the number of swings depending on the ranges and on the ...

Rel's Lab

+1 The goal isn't to bottle feed people with magical orb indicators but to share ideas. From these ideas one can build his own trading method. I showed that the range bar charts are nicely Normally distributed and were therefore the frame ...

Rel's Lab

I asked because I distinguish 3 cases: inner swing, outer swing and equal swing. There are then 9 possible sequences of 3 swings. Relativity only considers 4. But I never thought before about taking the relationship of the 1st and 3rd swings end ...

Rel's Lab

Do you distinguish between these 2 sub-cases of the state #4 --depending on the ranges of the swings 1 and 3 overlap or not-- ? image

Rel's Lab

state #1 is made of higher highs and higher lows. The opposite (down trend) is then made of lower highs and lower lows. But the state #4 is also made of lower highs and lower lows. How do you distinguish the state #4 and the bearish version of the ...

Rel's Lab

Thanks. You can certainly change the SMA with another MA of your choice. Here it is just a good old Simple Moving Average with period 30. The bands are build by taking the lag into account and by using 200 samples instead of only 30 to compute the ...

Rel's Lab

This thread is very interesting. But I'd like to drop this little post to warn you about the fact that the Bollinger Bands is a defective tool. It leads you to wrong interpretations. The first issue with the BB is that it uses as many samples to ...

Rel's Lab

I have a problem with this kind of studies which is the way they define the predictive value of a signal. For the engulfer candlestick pattern for instance how shall I determine whether there is predictive value or not? Here is an example taken from ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

If I bet long for any heads on my coin and short otherwise I will lose the spread in average. How can you make an edge by betting against me? You'll just go long when I flip tails and short otherwise. You could as well flip your own coin!

Just a stupid question! What happens if I do the opposite?

This is of course wrong. You would make money if you knew in advance that hanover will lose. But if that particular day you oppose his bets he is lucky and he wins you lose the same amount as he won. Each time he wins you lose. Each time he loses ...

Just a stupid question! What happens if I do the opposite?