For intraday trading vs swing trading I think it's whatever it works. I won't be able to trade for 20 pips personally. Don't have the skills neither the temperament for that. For the swing in play : - If your FA analysis tells you, there is a game ...

EURUSD

yes fading the resistance is valid TA wise, I was just adding FA in the analysis.

EURUSD

I try to mix FA & TA actually (my D and W charts are somewhere above) but it's true I seldom do intraday trading, I am more in swing trading. But at a quick glance, H4 doesn't look very exciting for bears : image The only argument left I ...

EURUSD

I feel anguished for you bears, sell is very dangerous imo, we have a confirmed FED's shift, DXY and US Equities are all moving accordingly. Sure we are close to the top of the ST range, it might be worth under "normal" circumstances to fade it, but ...

EURUSD

Futures pricing probability of a cut in 2019 at 23.5% now and probability of 2 cuts is now higher than probability of 1 hike Markets pricing rates cycle over in the US

The Swamp

=> All super checked I think. => We didn't have an interview in the WSJ but a round table discussion with JY and BB in Atlanta. => The very very dovish outlook on inflation at last FOMC was confirmed yesterday. It was heavily backed by JY. That's ...

EURUSD

overall message seems economy still solid with no sign of inflation overshooting, it's undercontrol & low => that's a super combo for equities imo and that is pushing FED further on no hikes path for 2019

The Swamp

lol JY hammering inflation risk as well (still low & dynamic favourable)

The Swamp

yup JP is still very dovish on inflation that's key perfect for equities as well

The Swamp

That is a strong job report. That makes Macro Data in the US a mixed bag lately imo. We have Macro still strong on employment front, while Manufacturing PMI is very disturbing and inflation barely reaching target among other soft numbers. That makes ...

The Swamp

Floor hold strong during the flash crash in thin market after the roll. It looks litteraly on a launching platform now . H1 has already reversed up I think ; on H4 bulls need to take 1.131x. Both TF have an intraday floor @ 1.122x imo. Reversal up ...

EUR/CHF

Yes and it comes with other poor numbers we had these last weeks. Beyond unemployement, the ones I'm especially tracking are wages (AHE) and PCE. With 2018 strong growth, inflation was already struggling to reach FED target and hardly pushing wages ...

The Swamp

What a miss in ISM Manufacturing PMI, we have to go back to dec 2016 to see a poorer number. Prices PMI extremly poor as well (was above 70 a couple of months ago), another evidence that inflation is far from heating

The Swamp

I would try to map the flows on Weekly as in the chart below. I think the MT dynamic on UJ is the following : 1) reversal down on Q1 2018 via DT starting trade wars (=> bad expectations for global growth in the MT/LT because of trade wars - just ...

USD/JPY Discussion

looks Brexit related ? No deal at all ?

USD/JPY Discussion

On daily TF, I think that is just more chop, nothing extraordinary, same accumulation as these last 2 months. Usual suspect 1.131x looks naked for a test, but as long as we don't break down 1.126x, nothing will change in this TF imo.

The Swamp

Trying a long here 109.2x for ideally 110.1x, 110.7x and 111.4x Might look like a sucker game as price hasn't built yet a floorTA wise, but Equities are finding foot

USD/JPY Discussion

It's just all risk-off driven. If Equities find foot, UJ will find strong support in that last May SL support zone (108.7x-108.1x), otherwise it's direct to 106.6x imo. But macro & monetary wise, there is no reason (yet) to break down 108 handle. ...

USD/JPY Discussion

All cleared @ 109.5x on Asian Open. Last part of the swing was really telegraphed I think. Sideline now. It's pointing to 106.6x but it looks more a MT target than a ST target to me. I think we just need Equities to give a hand to ...

USD/JPY Discussion

On EURCHF, TA wise, I think we are in a good value area to go long. We reversed up the downtrend last October and current leg is a simple retrace (= dead cat bounce) to last breakup point. FA wise, it looks like a no brainer I think. SNB is super ...

EUR/CHF