And it breaks ... Major target of the swing cleared at 1.155x

EURUSD

Minutes pretty uneventful to me, especially after all the endless talking heads interviews we had since last FOMC. Nothing new. I have now 1.143x as a strong floor in H4 following the confirmed break up in this TF (in my TZ) 1.155x is key on D1 to ...

The Swamp

thanks

The Swamp

H4 image

The Swamp

if it holds the break, it's very unlikely we stall in the 1.15xx handle imo as markets will be solving a 2 months-old accumulation range. Still eyeing 1.1650 as final target for the FED's shift swing. Momentum should do the trick if the break holds, ...

The Swamp

Sure, that's wise

The Swamp

that's helpful to gauge markets but I'm not sure you can interpret it as much as you do. that would tend to make it only a matter of arbitrage between bonds and fx in my view

The Swamp

first target in ES cleared manually at 2583

EURUSD

DXY on the Monthly : I was expecting the dead cat bounce to end around 98.7 a few months ago. I think I will not have it. image

The Swamp

A cross-party alliance of MPs (including 20 conservatives) was formed today in the UK to block a no-deal brexit at the end of March. They have the majority at the House. Basically they want to bind TM government's hands. It's still very likely TM's ...

The Swamp

Something wrong in the article : ECB doesn't expect to raise hikes after the summer and markets don't expect that neither. Best expectations are for december 2019/March 2020 so far. On H4, last SL is holding strong so far. That SL was built on ...

The Swamp

lol, you are terrible guys :-) that is just basic price action semantic close in the SH resistance = imminent break up

EURUSD

lol, when I you look at your avatar I feel you've eaten too many mushrooms. PS : 1.2195 too far for me. I have MT top in the 1.18xx and everything above locked via rates differential until we fully price one cut in the US or one hike in the EZ, in ...

The Swamp

I agree we often read crap here and there on CB expectations, but here it's a real game changer. Just check FED fund futures to gauge markets sentiment : they are pricing no hikes in 2019 and even starting to price one cut in Q4. In other words, ...

EURUSD only

yes clearly a resistance there but no reaction/rejection so far. Your area to load longs looks great, but I just feel it would sound like markets will give a second chance to those who missed the train. I already find 1.1448 too far for my taste. ...

The Swamp

Comatose mode for hours at the top of the range instead of a retrace while indicators in the lower TFs are stretched, that says a lot imo. and not in thin hours.

The Swamp

EU rolling in imminent break up (on D1) image

EURUSD

End of rates cycle has a lot of MT/LT implications for many portfolios. The reshuffling should give enough momentum to EU to visit the top of the MT range, although its "fair value" is probably below this top (for now) given current rate ...

The Swamp

Day looks over but we are going to close in imminent break up alert on daily, as we are closing in the SH resistance.

The Swamp

It's going to break up, looks very telegraphed now. Fx and equities all aligned, repositionning on FED.

The Swamp