Volatility and acceleration are two distinct things. Renko are not flawed because of the time dimension removal (they are designed to do so). Renko are flawed because they are biased on the trend: you need N pips move to get a new bar of the same ...

Preferred Timeframe for Trading

10 pips constant range bars. 10 pips ~ average volatility of the majors over one hour. CRB also break down sharp moves into several bars. Then MTF by doubling the range.

Preferred Timeframe for Trading

Oh I forgot that when/if the 1st trade comes back a few pips in profit you can add again 1 lot. At this point of time you trail all the SL to half the original size. This way the first trade is half its original risk, same for the last position. The ...

Hedging Because You Don't Want To Lose

It isn't wrong per se. But it is objectively overleveraged. I'm not telling you the idea is bad but that the associated risk is too high in comparison to the reward. You can do something similar while keeping your risk under control (that is ...

Hedging Because You Don't Want To Lose

When you go long it is because you think there is a good chance that the price increases. It can be a very short term microstructural reason, a long term fundamental reason, a statistical arbitrage... Whatever you're bullish. When you hedge 1 lot ...

Hedging Because You Don't Want To Lose

Not necessarily. First you have to better formalize what you want to estimate.

Statistical mean of the market [quant corner]

None of the examples was supposed to be useful. Of course HP filter "repaints". It is a GLOBAL estimator: it repaints the whole dataset. All the four examples were meant to show that the problem is ill posed. If you want to remove every movement ...

Statistical mean of the market [quant corner]

You can't find an answer to this question because it is an ill-posed problem. - If you need the lowest squared error with the price then the price itself is the trivial result. - If you want it maximally smooth the linear regression is the solution: ...

Statistical mean of the market [quant corner]

Let's assume there is a genuine edge in his LOB. This edge comes from the usual increase of volatility at the open time. There are 3 cases to consider: 1- Today has no volatility breakout. The entry may win or lose out of pure random luck. In such a ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

To summarize it is better because instead of a sudden death there is a long agony... There is a huge difference. In the 15 lots scenario a winner makes $150 and a loser loses $150. With the marty version a loser still loses $150 but a winner only ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

The proper name is stopped martingale. It fails even faster than a non-stopped martingale because the loss can never be recovered (see my post above). Actually any practical martingale is necessarily a stopped martingale since nobody owns an ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

You can write in BIG, in bold or in blue to help convincing yourself that's won't change the facts. Your psychologically twisted dice makes things even worse because you don't know how it is biaised and this biais changes over time. Martingale is ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

This is completely wrong. The ratio converges toward the winrate. The difference is unbounded. The difference is a Bernouilli trial based random walk. Even in the case of 20:1 W/L (95% success rate!) you have 51.9% chance of hitting at least one ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

This is a misconception you can trade daily or weekly with a 30-40 pips SL. Some do with smaller. And you have days to add to your trade so the leverage can become very big while all the other entries are locked in profit. This is exactly what ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

This one as well url It looks like the millipede but his method is one-sided (no long and short at the same time). I like his method of entering with constant risk while increasing the leverage. But it is not as easy as he describes.

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

Perhaps he added to the trade. Perhaps he hedged himself on something else during the swing down. But that's irrelevent to the main question: Why exiting this particular trade here? After a breakout of a 750 pips "congestion" I would have expected ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

Sorry. I thought you were thinking he was underwater by 755 pips. I completely share your point of view. If your method tolerates such a retracement (!) I would expect that it is to get more than that. Yet he took profit at a place I can't ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

You should have had a look at the chart before posting. His trade was up more than 500 pips at the end of the retracement. The trade went +1200 then +500 then +1900.

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

Very interesting post. Of course I looked at the daily chart of G/U in the end of 2003. Actually this brings more questions than answers. TheRealThing says that he entered mid-November. We can imagine that he entered close of the breakout of the ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

The winner's strategy is to be lucky or broke. In a constest with 1000s of participants it is almost certain to have a lucky winner. How many times in a row can you be lucky? Wouldn't it be better to convert your brokerage account into lotery ...

Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month