LOL. Yeah, that Nassim Nicholas Taleb guy is an idiot. What a casual ovserver that guy is!

Random Price Movement

An interesting post. Thanks for taking the time. I'm making an assumption here so correct me if I'm wrong. You trade some market inefficiency that you've found? I can respect that. It's a smart way to trade. You are probably familar with Edward O. ...

Random Price Movement

Care to explain what you mean by this instead of just throwing out a generalised jab?

Random Price Movement

The patterns have meaning but is it inherent or do they have meaning because we as a collective have applied meaning to them? And then, does it even matter? Phil pointed out that testing those patterns rarely yeilds better than 50% accuarcy. That's ...

Random Price Movement

No. This is hemico's original question: Can profitability in trading exist simply with a sound money management strategy and a coin toss? It has nothing to do with the excel file. We could have used a 6 sided die and said even's long, odds short. We ...

Random Price Movement

Somehow you've confused and combined two separate ideas being presented in this thread. Here is how the thread has progressed so far: Phil posted an excel sheet that attempts to show price patterns can be created from randomn coin tosses. Some folks ...

Random Price Movement

What the last post doesn't take into account is spread. As soon as you add the spread every test lost money. Everytime it was due to the spread. So, I ran the optimizer a few times. TS's optimizer (so take this w/ a grain of salt) says optimal ...

Random Price Movement

Lol — Ok. A little birdie sent me some code. The code is an always in strat. Basically if you don't have an open position you flip a coin and that determines long or short at the open of the next bar. I used a 5min chart on GBP/USD from 7/6/05 ...

Random Price Movement

While I agree with Phil that you can't simply pull a number out of your hindquarters..... Actually, I agree with Phil on a lot of things. I've found it's a wise thing to do as he's one of the smartest traders I've ever met. Enough of the For a ...

Random Price Movement

Just for haha's I looked at the GBP/USD from 7/31/06 through today (hardly a complete data set). I used a quarter to determine long or short (heads long, tails short). I bought the opening price on the 3am EST bar and used your stoploss/takeprofit. ...

Random Price Movement

I wasn't sure if this was a typeo or not. But to be clear, the probability of heads is 50% regardless of how many times you tossed the coin. Here is a nice explanation: url

Random Price Movement

When I meet people who then ask what I do I'm almost always asked "So where is the dollar headed?". I reply "I have no idea. Possibly up but maybe down. As long as it moves either is ok with me.". It's usually not the answer they are ...

Dollar Support Politically driven????

I second the recommendation. As for the amazement, I've been saying "wow" all day long.

Money Management books?

I've made no assumptions at all about cause. I don't need to. You already told me why you lose 10% of your trades. The "statistics" are based on what you have already done. Should things remain consistent I'm only extrapolating what is probable in ...

Money Mangement, Do you take it serious?

The rest of your answer absolutely makes a difference. A probability distribution still applies to you. You don't simply escape probability because you don't take "mechanical" setups. So then you don't risk 12.5% per trade?

Money Mangement, Do you take it serious?

Taking 90% win rate at face value you still have a 5% probability of a 38% drawdown over 50 trades. That will require a 66% gain to recover. Beyond that at 3-5 times per month how long have you traded this method at a 90% win rate. What I'm getting ...

Money Mangement, Do you take it serious?

Do you consider your trading a business or a hobby? Is it merely for entertainment? or making a profit?

Money Mangement, Do you take it serious?

I couldn't care less what your trading log is. Especially for 1 month. Like I said before, if you are interested in the long haul, reconsider. Math disagrees with your current assement of risk management.

Money Mangement, Do you take it serious?

There is a silver lining to these traders who think MM doesn't matter.....we need someone to pay for our winners.

Money Mangement, Do you take it serious?

That's the point. "without stopping". If you are interested in making a couple "big kills" by all means continue. If you want to stay in the game long term, reconsider.

Money Mangement, Do you take it serious?