A study of balance. The precise problematic point is 10 pips lower than my buy entry, but let us see how this develops. image

The Great Pumpkin

I think there are many ways. I use volume. When the volume is larger for the up leg than for the down leg (Wyckoff, Weiss), this tells me that the trend is most likely going to continue. Usually a trend consists of three pushes (Elliot's 1,3,5 ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Lite, if the structure of price movement would be antipersistent on the 1 day timeframe, it would be an advantage to go contrarian each day. The implicit prediction being that the price will continue being antipersistent. The price following would ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

And then, bam, down...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

This statement has little to do with what I said. Please read the previous post. k

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

My argument was that the price and retail position was inversely correlated. That only means that when the price went down, retailers quickly switched to the buying side, and hence that is what the dumb money did. And hence the smart money must have ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

A retail trader can via an ecn broker move the price, but the effect is very small. Retailers on market maker brokers do not move the price, because they in principle don't have the access to the real market (I suspect that MM brokers, in order to ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I wrote about the archetypal dumb money strategy and money management before. Note that taking profit from a short trade is equivalent to buying, i.e. filling somebody else's short order. The whole point is that retail on average (for highly traded ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

The more disturbing interpretation is that there is no manipulation - it is the reality that is self-similar, and it just leaves its footprints in any available quantitative data. In this case what you (and I, to a limited extent) do, is divinate ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I agree that there is not an argument here. But, it is your attitude that is absurd. If a person is overweight, goes to the toilet often and has problems with vision, any medical doctor can suspect the condition and good ones can give accurate ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Well, contradiction is not an argument, and with your approach ("it is not possible") you can't really debunk anything. The fact is, you are biased and that influences your rationality. The rational way to approach this is to study it. k

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Check this post. Accurate to the extent that I would personally feel uncomfortable to explain it away with saying that it is a random plot from a random guy on the internet, and that one in a million is bound to get it right, without further study. ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Here, look at the yearly price of EURUSD and gold (black line) and the net positions (histogram) of Oanda customers (retail/dumb money/losers). You should notice the inverse correlation between the price and the net retail position. The price in ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Similar, but again different: One can consider taking countertrend trades with smaller sl ~1h before the end of, for example, the London session. k

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Now, I think it should finally go down. k

Oil and Natural Gas

I do, I use the Samsung Galaxy Tab 3: try the Trade Interceptor app, at least for plotting/indicators, if not for trading. Cheers, k

Who is using Tablets or iPads for trading?

Interesting, thanks. I am trying to do a similar thing. It also just provides the levels and not the time needed to reach it. I get something like your lower level, but not the higher one. So far, I think the price went to all the places on the ...

Oil and Natural Gas

Apparently not very long... (did get my tight sl taken two times, but the third time it lived.) k

Oil and Natural Gas

I am testing concepts leading to the same conclusion. My question is how long can it stay truly oversold/mispriced? k

Oil and Natural Gas

The end is nigh.

Living Off Fx