At this point I'm 50/50 on whether or not it even hits Florida. Some of the models are now showing it just curving out into the Atlantic. This could be a repeat of what happened with Matthew in 2016: image

Hurricane Watch

Thanks timingchain! I actually think it has been a strange week for gold and bonds. Until today bond yields kept heading lower while equities were going up. It's strange to have a risk-on environment with yields going down, but that changed ...

Hurricane Watch

I don't think there's a hurricane premium built into crude. The recent rally has had more to do with broad risk-on sentiment from what I've seen; check out this overlay between CL and the S&P in gray: image Further, implied volatility (subgraph) ...

Hurricane Watch

Yeah, it's looking more and more like Dorian won't make it into the western Gulf. I'm thinking about energy like this: Cooler weather over a state of 20m people would require a few less cooling days so lower NG? Evacuations > higher gas demand > ...

Hurricane Watch

Looks like you're still in the cone, but I'm hoping Dorian passes well to your south.

Hurricane Watch

I'll join in on the inaugural competition.

Energy Competition Zone (Demo)

I'm talking about a higher timeframe. Maybe we get another week or two of upside, then a month where it consolidates.

Gold RIGHT NOW

I'm not a big fan of that worst case scenario either. I just mention it because it's one way you can invest in metals and actually earn income. If your trading strategy component of this is effective though, why not reinvest the proceeds in ...

An idea for building wealth...using only gold

Yep, this is the best site I've seen for hurricanes. I edited my first post of the thread to add this in, along with some other useful tracking resources. What part of S Florida are you in now? The last Euro run has Dorian making landfall ...

Hurricane Watch

If I understand this correctly, the core philosophy here is to use proceeds from one asset to buy other assets? I'd completely agree with that. There's a lot of ways to do that, whether its using a gold trading account to buy physical gold or using ...

An idea for building wealth...using only gold

I'm thinking it might be about time for gold to take a breather. Look at how far it has come since June: image Yields have gone lower and lower, it feels to me like this whole move has been overextended. I'm not calling an end to this bull run in ...

Gold RIGHT NOW

I see some models are ramping up the intensity as it hits Florida. image 980mbs is consistent with a Cat 1 so the above models are showing something like a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 impacting S Florida. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up ...

Hurricane Watch

I think that may be difficult to figure out. My understanding is that the gulf energy industry made a lot of changes after Katrina so hurricanes won’t ever impact operations to that extent again. Harvey could be a good one to look at, but I don’t ...

Hurricane Watch

Models have been trending north. It looks less likely that Hispanola will break up the storm, but at the moment it looks less likely. image A few rogue plots still take it into the Gulf. image So far the models aren't agreeing at all on ...

Hurricane Watch

What's your time horizon on this? With Dorian coming, the potential exists for a big gap up on Sunday in NG if Dorian is tracking towards the western Gulf.

Live/Real Time Energy Trades

Nice work ET! It usually creates a pretty big impact, but for some reason it didn't really do much last week. I'll be interested to see if we have a repeat of that tomorrow.

High Impact Events Trading... Energy Edition

Thanks buddy! Trump made this call pretty easy. lol

Gold RIGHT NOW

Given the present state of global trade, I'm thinking the Fed eventually gets to 0%.

High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

Interesting, so am I right to think your trading is based on mean reversion?

Natural gas trading