I had a long-term trade where I was long one commodity and short another. The long position lost and short position gained. I later came to find out that when you sell something short the holding period it technically just 1 day and it's the day you ...

Oil and Natural Gas

How are you implementing the trade? Hopefully through futures or CFDs. I've done pairs trading like this through ETFs in the past and discovered it's not tax efficient.

Oil and Natural Gas

Gold should drop on a China deal. The primary reason for this is a trade deal is good for global growth and higher growth implies a higher central bank rate path. Part of the reason the Fed cut (and is expected to cut again) is uncertainty on trade. ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

A deep knowledge of economic theory is critical to trading with fundamentals. I recommend reading Keynes' General Theory; its a difficult read but well worth it.

looking to economic fundamental analysis

I agree completely. I don't like making indirect bets because more can go wrong. What software are you using for your models?

Weather Trading (prediction, forecasting): Rain to Hurricanes

I did some research and found two potential avenues for trading weather derivatives. 1. CME Globex The CME offers CDD and HDD derivatives for 10 cities. I'm not 100% clear how to trade this as a retail trader. I believe they can be traded through ...

Weather Trading (prediction, forecasting): Rain to Hurricanes

You make a good point, but Fernand is just a tropical storm: image I'm not sure if a tropical storm is enough to interfere with operations.

Sweet, sweet Oil

Interesting to see Flash Manufacturing PMI foreshadowed this. Chicago PMI is the one I always watch as a leading indicator of ISM. It had a m/m increase and beat expectations so I would have expected ISM to improve in August too. Typically its ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

I think you're probably correct. The reaction today is warranted if ISM is really reflective of the economy. Its manufacturing though, and manufacturing doesn't represent that large of portion of the economy. For that reason I'm taking today's ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Wow, NYT really is good. Thanks for sharing!

Hurricane Watch

Interesting, what's your reasoning behind that? How are you executing the trade? WTI has been outperforming for quite awhile, but looks like looks like the ratio keeps getting stopped around 26. image I don't think they're very good substitutes so ...

Oil and Natural Gas

Great analysis! Iron butterfly’s are my favorite options strategy, second only to Iron condors.

Technical Analysis of Energy Markets

A natural disaster can be good for the host country's currency. Assuming the government comes in to rebuild then you're looking at an expansionary budget, higher bond yields, and thereby a higher currency. There's obviously limits to that though; a ...

Hurricane Watch

I've got a few ideas on making money from weather and it mostly hinges on being able to generate a better than average forecast. Accurately predict NG weekly storage change. Forecast energy demand based on weather forecasting; trade NG accordingly. ...

Hurricane Watch

Isn't it amazing how far off the meterologists were with the intensity? They originally said it was going to hit FL as a tropical storm or maybe a Cat 1, now it is one of the strongest hurricanes in history. The forecast track was decent, but ...

Hurricane Watch

Novak's comments really sunk crude earlier: image He said Russia has produced slightly more than they agreed to. That doesn't sound like a big deal since OPEC has a long history of this, but if you read between the lines I think he's suggesting ...

Sweet, sweet Oil

The latest Euro model run has it staying offshore and curving out into the ocean. image

Hurricane Watch

The ECB's Knot came out today saying he didn't think QE was needed. This brought up global yields and knocked about $20 off gold. Bonds were way over bought (which brought up gold) so Knot's commentary may have marked a short-term top for gold.

Gold RIGHT NOW