The ECB meeting is the one I’m watching guys. See how bonds have been routed this week? If the ECB disappoints, and it’s looking like they might, yields are only going up more. Higher yields = lower gold so this one needs to be on everyone’s radar.

High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

I for one was surprised to see WTI drop so much on Bolton's firing. Who knew there was a Bolton premium factored into the price?

Sweet, sweet Oil

I think a mean reversion strategy would work well here. Here's the pair with standard deviation channels drawn: image A good strategy might work like this: Buy at lower 2nd St Dev (green line) Short at upper 2nd St Dev (red line) Take Profit at ...

Brent/WTI Hedging Strategy

These are good materials, thanks for sharing! Its easy to see how you could put together a stat arb strategy from this. I'll have to see what I can put together and maybe we can make some money.

Brent/WTI Hedging Strategy

I was reading an interesting article about how housing leads treasuries. It was published on October 29th, 2018 and I thought I'd share this image because it's remarkable how spot on it has been: image They really nailed it with the date ranges ...

Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

To expand on this point, I saw today the Russians are planning for a $25 scenario for next year: url Oil in the 20s would bankrupt a lot of energy companies. I’m really liking this trade idea because I see the potential and nobody is talking about ...

Sweet, sweet Oil

We will have a good opportunity to get long, but it’s still too soon I think. This correction is just getting started so I’d give it at least a week or two before starting to scale in.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

If you follow those you might prefer to keep track of credit spreads on FRED: url Unfortunately I haven’t found anything specifically for energy companies.

Sweet, sweet Oil

Anyone can make big money overnight with dumb luck. Big money comes with big risk; if I see someone up 100% in a week it’s a sure sign they’re a novice living on borrowed time. Real success is less about big returns and more about simply surviving ...

Successful traders are very, very rare to find

I came across an interesting script to view at seasonal returns using violin charts. Violin charts work like this: Length of violin represents the max and min returns during the period. Width of violin represents the frequency of returns. If the ...

Metals (data) Mining

Happy Sunday everybody. Fairly quiet weekend, judging by the dow it looks like there might be a small gap up on gold. image

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

I'm with you on monitoring credit spreads, but in my experience that data is tough to come by. Do you have a good source for it?

Sweet, sweet Oil

I'm not big into technicals (anymore), but that chart looks pretty bearish. Why don't you think the price is going into the 40s? Historically oil has done well late cycle and this time its just barely hanging in there. We might see oil in the 20s ...

Sweet, sweet Oil

I think we might be at a short-term top for gold. The story of the day was the big reversal in bonds, but as you can see the rally was way over extended: image Gold and bonds are highly correlated so if bonds go down gold will probably follow: ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

I looked at using ADP as a predictor of NFP, but quickly determined it's useless. On average ADP has been +/- 65,350 from NFP since 2008. image

High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

I've bought ETFs like that before too. Those K1 ETFs are a pita, I do my best to avoid them now.

Oil and Natural Gas