Refilling some of the unloaded shorts here in ES in the 288x 288x looks the obvious SH to fade on D1 2889 is the magic level on W1 Deep retrace but so far only a retrace. Bulls need to break up that SH to trigger a reversal up on D1 and aim 2916 and ...

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TP2 cleared finally. on 1.132x for the close as expected (precisely 1.13239) to trigger the ST reversal. image

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Same bad luck as yesterday to clear TP2 1.131x. Patient and confident though. Both ST and MT swings remain in play imo after last ECB, expected moves being 100% US Macro / FED driven. Breaking up 1.132x will trigger a ST (D1) reversal up (first one ...

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Uneventful Q ECB - neutral changes in outlook : Inflation outlook revised up by 0.1 for 2019, revised down by 0.1 for 2020. GDP outlook outlook revised up by 0.1 for 2019, revised down by 0.2 for 2020. - same threats to growth as before : brexit ...

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US Rates cut expectations keep rising Probability at least 25 bp cut at Sept FOMC = 90.8% Probability at least 25 bp cut in 2019 = 97.8% Probability at least 50 bp cut in 2019 = 83.7% image (from url )

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Given current macro data differential ... image image image image ... current rates differential just looks unsustainable image Swing trading = ride expectations/changes in expectations (data from tradingeconomics)

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I have these levels above : D1 continuation down 2799 reversal down + SH rejection 2826 SH rejection 2832.5 SH 288x W1 SH 282x SH rejection 2889

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Second target cleared in ES @ 272x image image

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Early indicators keep coughing in the US ... In EURUSD, clearing first target of ST swing @ 1.122x image

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EURUSD Monthly image EURUSD Weekly image

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IT10Y quick FA Map : (last news on Italy's deficit had very soft impact ; that's why I'm more leaning towards "noise and posturing" here rather than any serious FA change for EUR) image

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Very uneventful week in EU. Bad luck or simply bad call : TP1 1.122x of ST swing was missed by a few ticks (1.1215 for reference) and price is now back to square one. image Both ST and MT swings remain in the starting blocks, but with the stable ...

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272x in ES is key on W1 : Reversal/continuation down will be triggered in this TF if the level is taken (meaning MT Top set and any retrace very fadable at the usual PA levels) image

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Wave in ES keeps unfolding. Still aiming 272x as second target.

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And risk-off continues.. UJ in synch. => Clearing 108.5x, second target of the swing from 112 handle image

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Inline, uneventful, populists/anti-euro parties remain a minority

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Besides the MT swing in EU to 1.191x, betting now on a ST swing via smart money smelling the change and riding US Macro data flip expectations (all driven by WW slowdown triggered by DT trade war I (Jan 2018) and II (May 2019)) ==> 1.122x ==> 1.131x ...

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Horrible US PMI, big undershoot and on the brink to contract In synch here ! ES, UJ, DXY, EU...

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=> 1.112x cleared. => Bulls have never managed to close above 1.122x/3x since last month breakdown, price simply capped by last rejection. image Below, on D1 I have 1.108x and 1.102x, and on higher TF 1.098x (FA level) 1.095x (TA level which looks ...

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UJ, main risk off indicator, hold 109.9x on W1 (continuation down trigger) last week extension has shifted the trigger to 109.0x now though image On D1 : image

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