Well you're question is a good one. The only reason why you forward test a system is to see if the market conditions at the present are different from the market conditions in the past that had an impact on your edge. You also forward test to see ...

why curve fitting doesn't work?

Oh... people would be surprised just how simple profitable strategies are... My question, of which the answer is not apparent, is have you backtested this with a good amount of data, as well as fowarded it? These kinds of strategies, while ...

Geico strategy---so simple a caveman can do it!

So guys, that was what I was thinking -- why are they trying to compete with CME? CME has had spot equivalent futures for awhile... Regarding margin requirements, it really depends on the instrument. Pete, you might find that you can trade ...

USFE to list forex futures. Can we have your views on this?

Man Phil. No reply for me. ...sniff...

why curve fitting doesn't work?

Curve fitting doesn't really work. Because anyone can pick any number of moving averages, and I guarantee you will find one that works. I know -- I did it when I first started developing. Backtesting is really just a snapshot of system assurance. I ...

why curve fitting doesn't work?

One of the things that you can use in your systems development is "expectancy". Expectancy = (averagewin * win %) - (averageloss * loss%) Your expectancy value on forward based (out of sample) testing should be higher than the value on your in ...

why curve fitting doesn't work?

Wow... I can see where you would have mixed emotions. But, to me, as a trader, it would be no different than if I was in a different profession on the phone with the woman who was sitting at the window when the plane hit... Just nothing you can do. ...

Your Best Long Term Trade Is To Short USD/JPY

God bless you Jarhead.

Lets Talk GBP/JPY "the geppy"

You can always email carlos over at FT. Just email the support email. He'll most likely offer to do it as long as you are open to it being public. if not, he can point you to people who will, for a charge. Also, bear in mind that you cannot automate ...

.SI4 for GBP/JPY & EUR/JPY

Boy... I couldn't agree more with this statement. You hit it right on the head. We traders have such a bad problem with overcomplicating things.

Trend spotting

As jacko put it once -- give a chart to a five year old. He'll tell you what the trend is in about five seconds. And it works on all timeframes too.

Trend spotting

To be honest, I agree with your opinion on the main forces driving GBPJPY.

Your Best Long Term Trade Is To Short USD/JPY

I couldn't agree more with your analysis. Particularly your last chart. Typically, asymmetrical triangles like these break a bit sooner... regardless, we should see a nice break soon. And they typically break pretty hard followed by a pullback.

Your Best Long Term Trade Is To Short USD/JPY

I don't honestly see how anyone can say that the trend is down on GBPJPY. Of course, trend is relative to the timeframe that you're reviewing. If we're talking weekly and monthly, then we have a long way to go to be able to say, with confidence, ...

Lets Talk GBP/JPY "the geppy"

As a general rule, if it doesn't look good on at least 300 trades, trash it. Time period, or rather, length of backtest in months, years, etc., really doesn't matter.

.SI4 for GBP/JPY & EUR/JPY

You really hit it on the head, Phil. All systems deterioate over time, and you need to have a good system building methodology as well... Good post.

Automated Trading

Or maybe you got too much friggin' crap on your chart. I wanna punch that chart in the face...

Lets Talk GBP/JPY "the geppy"

Agreed. I think we both are probably thinking the same thing at the end of the day.

Automated Trading