Yeah yeah, no that's what you are that is, we could go on . Risk of ruin is for position sizing, but feel free to create a straw man and argue against it. And as for the next trade having no bearing on the last. True unless... *fill that ...

Calculating probability of losing streaks

Oh to be green again.

Calculating probability of losing streaks

Lads, lads, lads! It's the interest rate news, simple as that. Carney told the country yesterday we might not be looking at any interest rate increases for whole of 2016. Genuine surprise - everyone figured we'd be following US so it's v. bearish.

Your Opinion is Welcome on the GBP/USD Decline

Chris, not easy to attack an area like this from the outside and produce a solid, grounded paper - well done. Two things stand out - - If you want to get a more accurate picture of consistent profitable traders, speak to a couple of brokers off the ...

Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why?

I've always maintained if you're in trading for the money, you've lost before you start. Not only that, but that fact that money is the only driver means you'll be run ragged with your losses too. Do what you love, look after those you love, and ...

Is Forex trading worth it? If so, why?

Good spot, it was 99.99% likely to be a govt intervention to protect the HKD floor, fourth time this year? thereabouts. HKD is being used as a proxy for the yuan, so they acted ahead of any speculators. They did the same at the time of yuan ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

... and the reuters chart has the Swedes in at number 1. Look at the divergence between the min and max on the euro for 1 year ahead. Anywhere between 1.20 and .94 with the average at ... erm today's price. Useless but if you must choose one, 4cast ...

Source for reliable long term currency forecasts

The simplest rule of all. Fade asian session ranges, follow them the rest of the time. Brownie points if you know the statistical reason as to why.

brain storming - everyone please join us :)

You mean like telling the world that something's not possible even when you face evidence to contrary every single day? Madness!

The Inner Game of Trading

Good quality thread AO, totally agree about making yourself uncomfortable. I don't know if it's a deliberate reference or not, but the "inner game of tennis" and of golf is one of the most influential sports psychology books ever written. His genius ...

The Inner Game of Trading

Keep on waiting... BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's Beijing office told Reuters no date had been set for reviewing whether to include the Chinese yuan in its reserve currency basket, responding to a report in ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

Right ... and the only additional factor is that China is now using a managed float; they set parameters (2% of yesterday's trading price) as the max movement. It's part market forces and part managed. Plus the odd devaluation of course. Monetary ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

OK I was gently nudging you to look it up. Pegs and devaluation are *not* the same as interest rate cuts. There's two main determinants of exchange rates- intervention and interest rates, both are dependent on raw fundamentals. You might want to ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

Nah, devaluation rather than rate cut. Basically intervening in the currency market directly like swiss franc rather than cutting the interest rate. they've been doing that loads as well prior to August, but they would have to pack that in as a ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

they I did look up the official lines when it happened, China said it was a one-off although I take that with a pinch of salt. This suggests ... url ... that they might announce inclusion in nov, but won't happen for a while. this will give them ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

No fills? Anyone, anyone? Bueller?

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

anyone get any buy orders filled on that spike down? Orders at 410 and 349 missed. If you did, which broker you with? Particularly interested if you're with IB...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Not wrong there. I took a look last night at the impact of previous devaluation (chart shows eu, ucny, eurcny, gbpcny). The effect on other currencies was minimal but there were some strong clues to a long UCNY position before it happened. EU top ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

Interesting question... but I don't think we'll see any major fireworks either way, because: 1) The renminbi is already traded widely (3rd largest on EBS), so portfolio managers wanting to use it as a reserve already are 2) The SDR isn't that widely ...

Yuan inclusion in SDR and impact on USD

FF should flag up sensible questions like this, they're rarer than francium. No doubt the market has changed hugely over the past decade and computers have gradually but surely taken over a lot of the bread and butter trading of old. I went to a ...

How does algo trading affect manual traders?