Following on from this post, it seems safe to assume that the probability of returning to (aka "resolving") a potential TZ within h bars to the right of the middle bar is almost 80%, if h is set such that 3% of all the bars contain full TZs. But ...

The similarity system

Kind words are always appreciated, wireash, but I'm a minor contributor here. Better to thank Eurusdd and the main contributors for the great ideas and for stimulating such interesting discussion.

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Thank you Jay. What's more, if that 79% probability is accurate, then it follows that the probability of price returning to any bar on the chart (PTZ or not) is always close to 80%. I can prove that tomorrow, but it's late now in Japan and I need to ...

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Sorry forextarget, I don't understand your question.

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No, I meant where h is set such that 97% of bars on the chart are recurrent (either left-only, right-only or fully recurrent), even if the chart contains 23 million bars of data. In that siutuation, the probability of a potential TZ bar becoming ...

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Thank you for your replies about my probability question. Yes, I understand what you mean, LiquidGenuis. And k's method is exactly what I was doing to obtain probability A (78.5%). You guys seem to be very good with statistics and ...

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Hello everyone, There seems to be a lot of debate and confusion about probabilities at the moment, both on this thread and vlady's thread. I admit that I don't have much background in this subject, and by the looks of it I'm not the only one. I ...

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Hi cfd, yes I was talking about 80% of PTZs getting resolved (revisited). If we were sat together with charts, calculators, pencils, paper and beer then I'm sure we could thrash this out much easier. But we aren't, so let's leave it at that. Only ...

Transient Zones - Basics

Thanks Jim, for a moment there I thought I was losing my mind! It's hard to disagree with the cold hard bar counts in front of your eyes. And thanks cfd for editing your posts to reflect your mistake. And so, I'll repeat my warning for the newbies: ...

Transient Zones - Basics

Hi cfd, I'm afraid I can't dispute this without seeing kprsa's indicator, which is impossible for me right now. I just assumed that the "97% / 3%" you were talking about in his indicator was "97% recurrent bars / 3% TZ bars", not "97% potential TZ ...

Transient Zones - Basics

Beautiful post, Chicky. I fully agree! Thanks mate

EURUSD

Hi Gregoryy, I personally feel that the probability of this (bold statement above) is less than 97%. It's more like 80%. Please see my post on page 14 if you want to see why. I think the 97% figure is dangerous and misleading to people who are new ...

Transient Zones - Basics

Actually no, I dont use K's indicator because I don't use MetaTrader. My indicator is a NinjaTrader version. It's comforting that the stats agree with K's though.

Transient Zones - Basics

Thanks mate

Transient Zones - Basics

Where's Vlady's "head hurts" image? I need that right now! That statement in bold is some heavy stuff man.

Transient Zones - Basics

Hi mate, regarding your red text above, does he really say prices, and not bars? I think most of us are basing our h values on bars. The thing is, even a TZ bar (a bar containing a transient price zone) will have recurrent prices as well as ...

Transient Zones - Basics

Thanks for this, PipitoGrillo. Yes, hepsibah already said that those circles are valid signals according to the rules of his system. I think this shows the importance of discretion in any trading system. Even if the rules say "go", it's better to ...

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This sums it up nicely, and is the reason some people are having more success than others with transient prices.

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While it's true that there will be 97% recurrent bars and 3% transient bars for a given value of h, please remember that the probability of price returning to price you enter (on the current bar) is less than 97%. Why? Because some bars are only ...

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Another good point! I was wondering why our numbers were so different. Yes, my stats are for the next bar after a mid-bar TZ being another mid-bar TZ. A quick visual scan of the chart seems to confirm it, but I didn't have time to check the whole ...

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