Hi Chuck, I can run some analysis in R (an open source statistical analysis program) to test various parameters and settings for this trading idea. I am new to the thread, but toying with some ideas of trading co-integrated baskets. Before I set ...

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

Graviton, Congrats on your EURUSD and USDCAD long USD trades! :-) It was smart to take profits IMO. I see the following 3 reasons for you to TP where you did: 1) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m huge miss today (bad for USD) 2) FOMC meeting tomorrow ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Hi Fartist, You said you use moving average to trail my stops and exit when price trades beyond it. What MA's and timeframe do you use for this? Regards, EZ

Building an equity millipede

Nice!

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Lemming, I don't think you understood my post correctly ... I'm not adding longs as the position is falling down against me ... I'm adding longs as its running up, and I'm in profit. I move my SL up to manage risk to lock in profits on an adverse ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Graviton, Great stuff! I love reading your comments and discussion! Can you talk about the psychology of holding for the big swing / long term? Personally I can take small losses no problem ... but holding for weeks/months is very difficult for me. ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Yes, I'll have to do some testing with it. I've created an EA that trades when 5, 15, 30, and 60 min signals align (you can see trade logic in the EA which I attached here). Feel free anyone to test it out. It basically just enters a trade when ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I was long CHFJPY before the SNB news (got very lucky on that long!) Since then I have not traded CHF pairs. CHF may continue to strengthen, but I am going to give it a couple of weeks to play out. Large funds may still have margin calls, and also ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I've entered a few USDJPY longs on the recent swing low, and added a few times on the way up: url Hopefully it hits my 121 target in a few months! EZ

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Graviton, Great charts and and explaining your logic for entry! What if all TF's are pointing down and EMA's / signals lining up short (as in EURUSD), but you short but soon after price does a huge retrace (100 pips or so) from oversold conditions ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Looks like margin call selling in EURCHF ... also pushing EU down. I covered all EU shorts at 1.15 for nice profits ... will reshort next week on retrace. Also longed some xxx/JPY pairs for long term holds over the past 24 hrs. I'm surprised with ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Regarding my earlier post for EU longs, I was stopped out for a small loss. After looking at it again, I just shorted EURUSD again since it broke the 1.17 option barrier (see url for Feb options for EUR). Also now that the SNB removed the peg from ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Yes, for EU long, I don't see a huge rally ... maybe 200 - 300 pips at the most. At that point I'd reshort. As for xxx/JPY trades, I looked at the 61% retracement, and saw US stock market was getting clobbered today, but at the time xxx/JPY pairs ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

EURUSD possible sharp rally here. If you have been reading the financial news, the USD is a very crowded trade with many hedge funds long. What everyone is typically on one side, occasionally many exit within a short period of time because of some ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I was looking at the xxx/JPY index this morning, and see the index has performed a 61% retracement from the big move up (around Oct lows to recent highs). This is the overall index ... individual pairs may be different. Now may be a time to enter ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Excellent question! That got me thinking ... I have two different ideas I want to test out which can help answer this: (1) Multiple timeframe Markov Chain model using a simple two-state space model of up/down based off of the smoothed Heiken Ashi ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Now here is the same analysis, but lets say there is a fundamental bias of an upward trend, so now the probability of 1 (up) is 0.55, and probability of -1 (down) is 0.45. Nice uptrends! This supports the idea that we want to have the fundamentals ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I am reading the entire thread (great stuff by the way!) and wanted to test out this idea of an "apparent" trend vs. "real" trend. F I used R (an open source statistical program) to do 1000 flips of a fair coin (50:50) ... +1 or -1 being the result, ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Yes, and also weak fundamental CAD data and oil crashing will make CAD weak which will help your USDCAD longs. Also, CAD index historically down for all of Jan. I am testing out a basket trading idea .... CAD short basket up 4% overnight (this demo ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Graviton, Yes, good advice on the baskets (selectively selecting pairs). I have an AUD long basket for the past couple of days, but manually exited the GBPAUD short for profit since GBP index is now at support (see screenshot). Since GBP index at ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading