Good analysis nbfx! I think the USD long trade was very crowded (looking at COT report), it was recently near extreme levels. A USD long shakeout was definitely in order and is underway ... the question is how far will it fall before the USD uptrend ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Well, I was stopped out of all positions for overall small gain. Nothing compared to if it sold off and tested lows, but better than losing. Shorted again at 1.1426 first position. Will add if spike to 1.153 tomorrow, wide SL to over 1.16. Overall ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I have 7 positions stacked short ... looking for a nice downleg to retest lows. Overall SL's set so net gain ... zero risk trades. EZ

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

This definitely is not good for EUR: url

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I'm in the similar trades, but entered a bit earlier. Currently up 54 pips EU short, NZ short up 58 pips, UCad long up 94 pips from lowest position. I expect all to retest (or come close to) recent extremes of the last big move on daily charts. ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

It sounds like they want it to go down ... major trend has been down as well. This is just a retrace imo. Thanks for the heads up on NZDUSD ... I wouldn't have seen it if not mentioned here in the thread. I shorted 0.7431, but am expecting a squeeze ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

USDCAD long here? It looks like it got hammered from recent 1.28 highs due to rally in oil and lots of USD longs bailing USD across many positions. As I see oil now, its already falling off from highs ... I bet its back in the 40's next week, which ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Graviton, As usual, great post! Regarding your quote above (I am a U.S. Trader), the FIFO rules only apply if you are trading the same lot size for each position. If I open 0.1 lots (10,000 units with my broker Oanda), if I want to add I'll usually ...

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

I don't know the probability of up is 0.55 ... I was just using it as an illustration point. If there is some fundamental bias which makes price direction not 50:50 anymore, it will trend in that direction. Yes, you are correct ... its difficult to ...

40000 coin toss chart with data from Berkeley University

Hi Chuck. I need to download the data and run the analysis ... with < 24 hrs left in the week for trading, its not worth it. Its more of a longer term strategy anyway. I doubt it would open a trade tomorrow. Regards, EZ

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

Yes, that is correct. Just remember when calculating the pair, the 2nd is subtracted. So pair1 - coef*pair2. We may have to adjust for pip value later, but that is easy. We'll see how it works first. I will download the data and run the analysis and ...

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

It is not that easy of course. You have to look at the fundamental data, and how price reacts to it (Sentiment analysis) I remember a year or two ago, AUD had a jobs report out ... something like 5k was expected for jobs creation, but it was like ...

40000 coin toss chart with data from Berkeley University

I'll look for an EA that may do this already ... or at least close, then we can modify. I'll also download new data to update the analysis. The charts I posted were very hold hourly data. Regards, EZ

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

Check out my post 630 & 631 here: url The markets are indeed random. The first sample of 5 charts is 50:50 coin flip with equal probability. The second set of charts is if you had a fundamental bias, so probability of up is 0.55, down is 0.45. ...

40000 coin toss chart with data from Berkeley University

No ... by 'spread' I mean the difference between the two currency pair prices, but adjusted for a pip value. Here is the calculation I used i R to do it: I think for the first iteration of this ... the following below should be sufficient. We may ...

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

More sample cointegrated pairs

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

Chuck, What do you think of this idea below? I have an R script to analyze this for two and three pairs. Below is outlined for two pairs ... 3 pairs is similar, but there is something wrong with my script so I can't produce any analysis now ... I'll ...

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

I don't have a good answer to your question though. I'll show you what I've been working on and you can tell me what you think ... I'll post shortly. EZ

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

And to check, I just plotted some older 1 hr data I had stored in R. The black line is AUDCAD+USDCAD-AUDUSD, and red line is USDCAD. I think they are different, since I accounted for the approximate pip value: audcad$AUDCAD <- audcad$AUDCAD*0.91 ...

Hedge and Correlation Strategy

Thanks for the quick reply. Let me make sure I understand correctly ... so if Zscore > 2.5, then: Sell AC Sell UC Buy AU So more or less, AUD cancels out (one sell, one buy), and we are then net short USD and long CAD (so essentially short USDCAD). ...

Hedge and Correlation Strategy