I think you're completely on the right track... but get that data, if nothing else it will cement some confidence in the system. Your entry system is logical, simple and importantly your own. Your trail sounds fine too, it will feel that you are ...

Systematic Trend Trading

I'm really enjoying where you are going with your new thread but I am unable to contribute. Some of it is admittedly over my head but I get where you are going with it. You may like this blog I follow: Flirting with Models url

Systematic Trend Trading

Huge amounts of backtest data, different markets, different timeframes, different entry techniques, different trend identifiers. Then simulations of 1000's of runs with random generated data (how much variance to expect if the wins and losers come ...

Systematic Trend Trading

Well you need to gather a lot of data first and then make an assumption based on that wether the wins will cover the loss. What I have found with systems that move to break even quickly is: low drawdowns, very long periods of essentially going ...

Systematic Trend Trading

Actually 5,6,7R are all good but at some point you need to hang your hat on one option or another. There is no problem with updating your choice when you have overwhelming evidence to suggest it is wise, and in fact that is exactly what we should ...

Systematic Trend Trading

1. Short 2. Miss TP by a few pips 3. Long 4. Miss tp by 1 pip 5. stopped out by 1 pip before price reverses image This is bad luck and you do nothing... just continue to execute your model. Never change your process based on a short run of bad ...

Systematic Trend Trading

I'm always banging on about luck but never that good at explaining why it is important.... thankfully someone has done it for me https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ironies-of-luck/

Systematic Trend Trading

"Unless you are willing to tolerate the ups and downs and stick with your strategy over the long term, then you can't expect to achieve attractive returns in the market. Patience is not only a virtue, but even a necessity when it comes to ...

Systematic Trend Trading

“The model never varies. It never has an ego problem; it never has a fight with its spouse; it never wants to prove that it’s right. The model is never hung-over after a night of partying — it just does the same thing, time and time again. Very ...

Systematic Trend Trading

Simple trend/direction filter and 5:1 RR.... But people want to complicate it and feel they know better than the best. url

Systematic Trend Trading

Thank's Danzka, really important to understand this....

Systematic Trend Trading

The momentum factor is based on buy high, sell higher or alternatively, cut your losses and let your winners run. Value investing is based on a long-term reversion to the mean. Momentum investing is based on that gap in time that exists before mean ...

Systematic Trend Trading

“…in any probabilistic exercise: the frequency of correctness does not matter; it is the magnitude of correctness that matters…. even though Ruth struck out a lot, he was one of baseball’s greatest hitters…. Internalizing this lesson, on the other ...

Systematic Trend Trading

Yes I've done it, we probably all have done it, you tweak the entry, you tweak the moving average and you affect very little change in performance. The one factor that always has a distinct effect (of the factors you can actually control) is the ...

Systematic Trend Trading

Have a read of this.... This is the reality for us and for institutional investors file

Systematic Trend Trading

Technical break down for the coming week... "The market will not go up unless it goes up, nor will it go down unless it goes down, and it will stay the same unless it does either. -George Goodman"

Systematic Trend Trading

1 win followed by 13 consecutive losers this week... nothing unusual in that.

Systematic Trend Trading

Results: Week 1 +4R Week 2 -14R Week 3 -2R Week 4 -3R Week 5 +3R Week 6 +4R Week 7 -7R Week 8 -10R Week 9 -4R Week 10 -13 Week 11 +21 Week 12 +6 Week 13 +14R Week 14 -3R Week 15 +15R Week 16 +19R Week 17 -6R

Systematic Trend Trading

Trade 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179 stopped Trade 180 running image

Systematic Trend Trading

Gold had good market conditions but just bad luck, just missing tp's or just retracing enough to take the trail out. Minute variations can make huge differences when you hold trades for high RR, the important thing to know is that our job is to make ...

Systematic Trend Trading