By the way, whenever I say "we" here I'm always referring to just Jay and I. I can assure you that we aren't some mysterious institution with ulterior motives. Far from it! In fact, if anyone offers you paid coaching about TZ Systems - or any other ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

1) Sorry, I don't know much about Donchian Channels. But from what you've said, it sounds like they could be used in the First Opposite TZ system, yes. 2) Yes, the probabilty is changing all the time, espcecially in respect to where price is when ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Actually I would rather keep the discussions and results on list for now. There's still some work I'm doing that isn't ready for publication yet, but apart from that I'll try to submit as much as I've discovered.

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I can confirm that probability decreases as number of bars after the PTZ increases. To show an example of this, here are some stats from EU M240, 10 years of data: CTZ h=35/35, PTZ h=35/35: --- Total First Opposite PTZs = 220 --- Hit = 206 (94%) [1 ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I'm sorry limprobable. I have no long term data for gold at the moment. If I get it, I'll run the final stats on it (which I haven't talked about yet) and let you know.

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Absolutely, Ullen and sbc. You hit the nail on the head. Most of the PTZs were resolved very shortly after they appeared, which meant that price didn't retrace enough for them to be worth trading. In fact, the vast majority of them retraced less ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

So, we have seen from the stats that there is indeed a very high probability of the first opposite TZ being resolved before it's "parent" (or base) TZ. Especially on M240, which is the timeframe we mostly focused on after that. And here is another ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thank you for your support everyone So, just to recap, we are testing the theory that when you have a PTZ on the chart for a certain h value, and an opposite PTZ appears for the same h value, then the probability of the second PTZ being resolved ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thank you D.P. My thread has finally been started! You're welcome to join us

The Club!

First Opposite TZs The first system I’d like to present is First Opposite TZs. This isn’t the first system we worked on, but it is the main body of our work. It was inspired by an observation Jay had had about CTZ and PTZ triple sequences. CTZ ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Before we start, I'd like to thank FX-Jay, whose impressive trading results inspired me to start researching TZs in the first place. I've been working with him since January 2015 to produce the results I'm going to present, and I now realise more ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Yeah, I'm fine thanks. Not very active on FF these days due to offlist research and non-trading workload. But I'm hoping to post some of the results of the research I've been doing about TZs very soon As you probably know, I live in northern ...

The Club!

I wouldn't believe ENENews if I were you. This from RationalWiki: "ENENews, or Energy News, is a fear mongering anti-nuclear news aggregator that was created in response to the Fukushima I nuclear accident. The site tends to have three different ...

The Club!

Thanks Innate. Actually I meant to say Tip TZ strategy (as oppose to Mid TZ... haven't even started looking at those yet!), but it came out as TZ Tip. Anyway, you probably know what I meant. I wouldn't get TOO excited, by the way. The strategy does ...

Transient Zones - Basics

Yes, all my indicators are NinjaScript. Sorry, I've never used the MT4 indis and I've lost track of everything that's available for TZs. Regarding combining TZ strategies with other strategies... yes, that's exactly the way to go. A TZ strategy ...

Transient Zones - Basics

As far as I can see, the problem with trading as Eurusdd said is that if price continues going in the same direction (up, in the stated example), then you will lose. On the bar chart it will look like a mid-bar TZ. And price might keep going in a ...

Transient Zones - Basics

Just to be clear, that particular indi measures recurrent prices, not bars. I have another one for bars. The only reason it's applied to a bar (candlestick) chart is because h is measured in bars. So it's 87% of prices which are recurrent, not bars.

Transient Zones - Basics

Those quotes of Rahimseven and Eurusdd you quoted are confusing to me. They are saying that it's based on price, and not bars ("there is no center bar", "it is not the bars you should count for the probability"). However, the h value is measured in ...

Transient Zones - Basics

I see. 5% of current balance for risk and reward every trade. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. By the way, if you'd used 5% of starting balance ($500) per trade in the above example, the ending balance would be $14500, which is $630 less. So not only ...

Ullen's journal