I guess I just don't understand what your saying. How can a simple conclusion be drawn that bull close is higher than bear close if you just told me they are almost 25% proportionate. I don't see how they are related. Are you saying that bulls will ...

Thoughts on randomness and systems

Can you give me a number to what that probability is? I don't understand what you are saying. The probability of a bull candle is definitely not the same of a bear candle. This doesn't make one bit of sense. You seem to have taken something ...

Thoughts on randomness and systems

Care to elaborate how from your excel spreadsheets, you decided the market is random? How do trends arise? Does really strong movements just randomly occur around news periods? Do whole numbers randomly provided stronger support/resistance? You ...

Thoughts on randomness and systems

Nevermind, I didn't realize this thread was so old.

Stacking the odds ..yes we do need luck

When?

Stacking the odds ..yes we do need luck

Oh geez. This is why I love forums. Pointless arguments, good laughs. I just have to come back to this one. The masses have come out of their holes, I just can't leave this thread. Lets shoot down another one: Leonlorenzo is too easy. He/she just ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

Typical response. Left the last message with a hook "I will not respond anymore to this thread", and you responded the way I expected you to respond. Blindly defending your weak points, then a personal attack. That is your first lesson in ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

Ugh, I can tell this is going to be a pointless, endless argument. Expectancy is not statistics. It is a basic, basic, very basic, fundamental idea of probability. Making 20 pips with a stop of 40 has nothing to do with machine B. Machine B loses no ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

The whole point is.. tdion, has absolutely no idea what statistics is or how it is used. And apparently his 'statistical type friends' are just as simplified.

Statistical analysis fallacy

Yep. I couldn't imagine anyone carrying out a statistical test without knowing how to interpret the results to themselves. Just getting the assumptions met to do a test is a hard enough task. The test itself is easy. I'm not sure what you are saying ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

I am talking about people trying to use statistics to prove something that they don't know enough about. I am not saying anything about trading here. I am simply stating how statistics will fail if certain assumptions are not met, and some are too ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

uhhh — $25 into 2400 in 3 weeks? The free $25 is in a micro account, not a mini account (You said she was trading 8 mini lots). Since if you only trade 2 lots, you will be required 5 dollars of margin.. She must have gotten extremely lucky ...

CNBC FXCM free $25

Not quite.. — Its not the statistics that failed, it was the so-called 'analysis using statistics' that failed. Just because you have large population does not guarantee anything about the real population because of a confidence interval or a ...

Statistical analysis fallacy