A double bottom could be forming and I might be too greedy with the entry price. Monthly chart: image AUDNZD is the most important exchange rate for the New Zealand economy. It looks like a no-brainer, which makes me wary. wrt. AUDCAD, in the most ...

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AUD is showing strength despite emerging risks from China. The cash rate is at a historically low level which of course lower's the whole yield curve. Seven months have passed since the last cut and the 'desired' effect has started to show up in ...

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EUR/USD has become a bit pricey. I suspect the main reasons for euro’s resilience are: 1) real yields have declined considerably less than nominal ones 2) Fed is still intervening on a massive scale and artificially lowering term premiums 3) growth ...

EUR/CHF

It's too early to short the Kiwi, I think. The outrageous valuation is likely to last until Fed and perhaps BoE starts signaling rate hikes. USD could then turn to be a more optimal counterpart. The performance chart is from the Thinkorswim platform ...

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YTD performance vs. USD: has the time come to short NZD/CAD? image In close tango: with USD/JPY you're indirectly trading the US 10y note. image

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Muppets. When completely ignorant to the underlying macro you can’t afford to have strong opinions. The SNB is not going to raise the floor or impose negative rates. Officials are just jawboning. Keep in mind that a central bank is supposed to be ...

EUR/CHF

Agreed. Oanda is one of the few bucket shops that offers access to the pair. The break-out is most likely to occur during Asian hours. With the unfolding debacle in China, I think it's to smart to stick with gov't fixed income and low yielding ...

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Shorting China thru the Taiwanese dollar might be easier than with copper, AUD, steel or mining companies etc. Using 2013 data, about 27% of Taiwan's exports leaves for China. image USD/TWD weekly Following the recent rally it became very ...

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Im closer to the bear camp wrt. Sterling. The market is getting ahead of itself with discounting MP tightening. Carney was spot on when mentioning that a sustainable rebound in growth is dependent on increased business investment. The eurozone is ...

Markets Source

DXY has room to fall by an additional 0.4pp before it hits support and becomes oversold, in a strict sense. image GDP growth and PMI figures in the eurozone have recently surprised on the upside. The ECB has also signaled that MP is likely to stay ...

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Right now, Sterling is at major resistance against both the dollar and euro in addition to being very overbought. I suspect that a near-term continuation is dependent on above consensus inflation (tuesday) and employment figures (wednesday).

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Here's a few charts that may provide some insights. Gold is close to where it should be while USD/JPY and USD/CAD looks a bit rich.

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Without the low liquidity spikes in EUR/USD and GBP/USD during Xmas I suspect the charts would look somewhat less bearish.

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Is it really different this time wrt. the yen? image The red line is USD/JPY RPPP-adjusted to 2000. image image

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Street consensus on tapering at this point is March 2014. I think the market has largely already adjusted to the postponement even though we might see some knee-jerk selling post-release and during the press conferance. Weekly RSI levels for EUR/USD ...

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This price fall in gold is NOT caused by govt conspiracies or manipulation. Gold is in a bursting bubble! Bulls are currently in the denial phase, rationalizing the 20%+ price drop as an insignificant short-term loss. Large speculators are still ...

All Majors and Gold