Hey FXEZ, thank you for taking the time to investigate the counting method further and share your results with the group. That is definitely interesting feedback that I'll need to investigate. In some of my comments in this thread, I've alluded to ...

Trend-spotting

Please see FXEZ's excellent post just above this. He basically outlines the "problem" with this method on the 15M/30M (or below) TFs. I developed an EA that uses these counts to trigger trades and I set the EA on demo trades starting last week. I ...

Trend-spotting

Yep - MTF would be an interesting view.

Trend-spotting

Sarcasm aside, the EA that I'm testing uses successive signals to layer into (some would say, pile onto) a trade as the trend continues. In early testing this seems to have some very beneficial results. Of course, any time you start piling more lots ...

Trend-spotting

Naw, it won't really be a system until we stick 5 or 6 more indicators on the screen. And we need an e-book. And then we need 14 different versions of an EA - all of which are sworn to work (especially in backtesting) until you put them on a live ...

Trend-spotting

Usually those "conversations" are accompanied by a healthy dose of beer or Captain Morgan's. When I stop asking myself questions and I start arguing with myself, I turn off the charts.

Trend-spotting

Quantifying support/resistance levels — I'm not sure if this helps anyone or if it's just further babble, but another way to think about this counting method is that it quantifies support and resistance levels. I believe very much in s/r ...

Trend-spotting

The indicator D3trax so graciously provided does a great job of handling this. It only looks at the last 1,000 bars, so the highest count you can get in either direction is 999. If that sounds flawed or limiting, it's not. There's really no point to ...

Trend-spotting

Bingo! I'm always most concerned with trying to figure out the trend right NOW. So I'm always looking at the last number in either direction (or, in the case of zeros, the last couple of numbers). I guess that was kinda my point in my first couple ...

Trend-spotting

And looking at the H4 chart, I see a similar stalemate. If you held a gun to my head and forced me to pick a direction, I would pick "down" because the most recent downtrend has a strength of 5. The most recent uptrend has a strength of 0 - so this ...

Trend-spotting

Hey MPP, I'm not sure if I properly communicated my counting system because I don't see much of a long trend in either of the charts that you've posted. This is my fault for not being very clear. On the first (top) chart, I see a non-trend. This is ...

Trend-spotting

Yes, absolutely agreed. Despite my ever-so-deep-and-insightful ramblings about probabilities and randomness, the central question is still quite simple: Does any aspect of previous price action have an effect - ANY effect - on future price action??? ...

S/R and TL on Randomized Price Movement

Equal closes — Yes, good point. With the advent of fractional pips, this actually happens much less than it used to (and it did not happen much before). Many bars that look, to the naked eye, to have "equal" opens/closes actually have, ...

Trend-spotting

No offense intended. I'm not implying that YOU are an idiot, I was just making the argument regarding you (the generic "you", as in, a nameless person playing a role) for the sake of illustrating a point. Sorry for any confusion.

S/R and TL on Randomized Price Movement

First, if you do not know or understand ANY of the factors that go into the price action, then yes, from your perspective, trading would be random. This does not mean that the markets are random. It just means that the markets are random by your ...

S/R and TL on Randomized Price Movement

Randomness is a function of time — It's also important to note that randomness is usually expressed in probabilities, and probabilities infer an event that has not yet taken place. So even though I say that something like a coin flip is not ...

S/R and TL on Randomized Price Movement

Yes, you are correct. Referring back to my second post in this thread, I've said that randomness is relative. In other words, to the participants in the lottery the results ARE random. They have no way to determine/calculate any of the millions of ...

S/R and TL on Randomized Price Movement

Thanks, Pipper. I think you succinctly communicated what I was trying to get out in my long posts. It's always relatively easy to look at the last hour/day/week/month and see where the trend WAS, but this counting system allows me to make an ...

Trend-spotting

Sweet! Thanks again!

Trend-spotting

Randomness can be profitable — Some people have posted in this thread that you can't profit from a random system. If this were the case, there would be no lottery. Random systems make people money - sometimes, boat loads of money - every ...

S/R and TL on Randomized Price Movement