As you can see, 40-80% is looking better, but it's nowhere near phenonomal. It was time to start optimising those parameters I mentioned above. More next week. Have a good weekend (what's left of it)

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Finally, what about a wider retracement setting of 40%-80%? R:R is 1:1, need > 50% TP to be profitable. Nice and simple. Here's the report: ===================================================================== $EURUSD M240, Pip = 0.0001, Run time = ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thanks Bill. Before we get into the optimisation process, here's another report with realistic retracement settings. The last one had a minimum retracement of 0%, so all otherwise-valid TZs were included (except 2, or 0.2% of all valid ones, which I ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

And here is a typical report that the indicator produced. Note that all parameters are set to produce as many first opposite TZs as possible for a range of h values greater than 30. This report acts as a base from which to optimise. In the report: ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Here is a list of parameters (filters) we considered based on chart observations and previous stats: h Min TZs with h values lower than this would be ignored. Valid values: positive integer (e.g. 30) h Max This was mainly to limit the processing ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I'm back! Sorry for the delay. My non-trading business is unnaturally busy at the moment, so there might be lengthy gaps between posts. So, just to recap, we'd found that there was a high probability of the first opposite PTZ being resolved, for a ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Hey Jay, without giving too much away, is that 59 out of 59 success rate for EUR.AUD based on TZs at all? And if so, daily or H4? 59 is a small sample size, but even so... 100% is hugely impressive!

Jay's High Probability Setups

Someone asked me a few posts back if my indicators were available, but I can't find it now (maybe they deleted it). Anyway, my old TZ indis are still available on the extracted threads as far as I know, or you can download them from my profile page. ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thanks Sis.yphus. I think Dochian channels are good for this purpose but limited by the fact that you're stuck with only one h value, for example h=20 on the chart you posted, without continuously changing the period to math the conditions. A ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

By the way, whenever I say "we" here I'm always referring to just Jay and I. I can assure you that we aren't some mysterious institution with ulterior motives. Far from it! In fact, if anyone offers you paid coaching about TZ Systems - or any other ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

1) Sorry, I don't know much about Donchian Channels. But from what you've said, it sounds like they could be used in the First Opposite TZ system, yes. 2) Yes, the probabilty is changing all the time, espcecially in respect to where price is when ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Actually I would rather keep the discussions and results on list for now. There's still some work I'm doing that isn't ready for publication yet, but apart from that I'll try to submit as much as I've discovered.

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I can confirm that probability decreases as number of bars after the PTZ increases. To show an example of this, here are some stats from EU M240, 10 years of data: CTZ h=35/35, PTZ h=35/35: --- Total First Opposite PTZs = 220 --- Hit = 206 (94%) [1 ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I'm sorry limprobable. I have no long term data for gold at the moment. If I get it, I'll run the final stats on it (which I haven't talked about yet) and let you know.

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Absolutely, Ullen and sbc. You hit the nail on the head. Most of the PTZs were resolved very shortly after they appeared, which meant that price didn't retrace enough for them to be worth trading. In fact, the vast majority of them retraced less ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

So, we have seen from the stats that there is indeed a very high probability of the first opposite TZ being resolved before it's "parent" (or base) TZ. Especially on M240, which is the timeframe we mostly focused on after that. And here is another ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thank you for your support everyone So, just to recap, we are testing the theory that when you have a PTZ on the chart for a certain h value, and an opposite PTZ appears for the same h value, then the probability of the second PTZ being resolved ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thank you D.P. My thread has finally been started! You're welcome to join us

The Club!

First Opposite TZs The first system I’d like to present is First Opposite TZs. This isn’t the first system we worked on, but it is the main body of our work. It was inspired by an observation Jay had had about CTZ and PTZ triple sequences. CTZ ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Before we start, I'd like to thank FX-Jay, whose impressive trading results inspired me to start researching TZs in the first place. I've been working with him since January 2015 to produce the results I'm going to present, and I now realise more ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs