Actually tdion, while the data may seem random to some, it's not entirely random because there is a feedback process. And it's due to this feedback process that allow some indicators to have self fulfilling properties.

First-Strike & One-Night-Stand users, show yourself and your mods, if you dare!!!

The kelly formula is not something you use to determine how much to put in any one specific trade. It requires as one of it's inputs your success rate and win/loss, otherwise known as your edge. You use it to bet more on strategies that have a ...

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someone mentioned awhile back that he pm-ed joel to come take a look at this thread. Hoping he pops by and comments on some of the things said here.

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I'm going to take a stab in the dark and guess it's because the recent months have been very volatile=)

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Interesting to note of course is the fact that the only pure MM strategy that will not fall into the trap of betting less when you're winning and betting more when you're losing is one that resembles a martingale betting system. And well all know ...

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It doesn't matter what broker Joel is using to trade, because he's using simulated trades on tradestation to prove the reliability of his strategy. All floating variables can be removed by simply using tradestaion to replicate his strategy(which I'm ...

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He's really not. They are two websites run by the same person : Joel. It should also be noted that they also promote the same strategies. I don't prefer to bash. I wish the results were real, I really do. Then I don't have to go looking for other ...

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The reason we take the effort to point out bullshit is the same reason people give for sharing strategies. We're sharing our work. We took the time to prove or disprove a strategy so it can either gain or lose credibility. That saves people from ...

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You're in luck. I use tradestation. I used tradestation to test his strategy and am able to replicate the graph he publishes by using inaccurate data. I love how people just assume everyone has just 1 website to their name. The website you guys ...

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Yes, I've already done that. And I've raised that point with Joel too. Like I said before, I've concluded that Joel's data isn't accurate/complete enough for backtesting. The only thing I'm unsure of is whether he already knows it, and keeps using ...

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what makes you think they don't? It's virtually impossible to be this close to the markets and stay away from it i think. At least, that's how I justify trading=)

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erm. As someone who works in the industry, no sane fund manager would ever promise they can beat the market every year.

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That's just a standard disclaimer. Every fund manager in the world would tell you that. You're talking about people chickening out. Fact is, mechanical testing doesn't chicken out. If the rules say to take the trade, it takes the trade. That's what ...

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Actually, if i recall correctly, Joel quantified his edge to about 11%. That's pretty huge.

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I've been lurking here for over a year, and finally got off my ass and registered an account just to put in my 2 cents worth regarding joel's strategies. The gains he claims to have been made from first strike and ONS( he plots them via ...

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