Sorry, my information about NinjaTrader 8 was wrong. It looks like the May 4th release will only be to an initial group of beta testers. No release date yet for the general public

Statistical Analysis of TZs

You're welcome. And good luck with NinjaTrader, there's a bit of a learning curve at first. The main reason I use it is because my broker doesn't support MT. It's also more powerful than MT from what I've heard. But I only use it for analysis - all ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thanks Saturday. So I've done some digging and this is what I've found: This post on Vlad's thread shows that the probability of 2 top CTZs in a row is 15.0% on EU M60 h=30 36600 bars. That is, 15% of all 'Top > xxx' become 'Top > Top'. 2 bottoms in ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

You mind must be fresher (and younger?) than mine because I really can't remember! Let me look it up and get back to you...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I think this highlights the risk of believing in stats and probabilities without knowing exactly what they are showing. Even I was fooled at first by those positive probabilities I posted yesterday, and I'm the one who wrote the program! It wasn't ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I wonder what his reaction was when you told him your nickname?

The Club!

Hey Almondeyed, I had some time today to look into your "scalping away from the TZ" idea mentioned here. I have some good news and bad news about it. The good news is that according to the stats it is indeed profitable over many years and many ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

So, where do we go from here? These are some of the things I still want to do: 1) Play around with the two new parameters, especially fixed h-right=90 (3 weeks on M240) for every Target 2) Continue my work with dynamic retrace levels 3) Add some ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thank you Markus. That means a lot, coming from you

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I'm going to cut to the chase and give you a summary of what we found. I'll post some spreadsheets too, in case you want to play with the results. Note that all the results were produced before last week's code changes and additional parameters. But ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

In order to optimise the paramaters faster I decided to code a simple optimiser into the indicator. NinjaTrader does have a built-in optimiser, but it's only available for Strategies (EAs) and not Indicators. There are some aspects of NT strategies ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Welcome back, Zelo! Hope everything is going well for you

Money Flow Trading Question

Finally for today, here are the results for 40%-80% retrace on EU. Base (same as posted earlier): First Opposite TZs: TP=58.3%, Valid=36 (TP=21, SL=13, EX=2) All TZs: TP=48.9%, Valid=180 (TP=88, SL=84, EX=8) As previous, but h Max reduced to 120 (4 ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Ha ha, nice one! If we'd done only that for the last 6 years on EU we'd have been in green Seriously though, if that holds true over many pairs then you might be on to something. Something like "if price moves away from the TZ tip by more ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

So, here are some stats. For consistency, I'm using the same basic parameter settings as the stats I posted earlier - even though they might not be the best combination - and the same time period, unless stated. First, here are the base 10%-30% ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Code tweaking and testing has now finished and as a result there are two new parameters: Target h Right The number of bars to the right of the Target TZ within which the TP or SL may be hit. If neither are hit within these bars, it's reported as an ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thanks for the link and future project idea, Almondeyed. Though to be honest I've got enough on my plate with TZs for the time being. I'm the kind of person who likes to thrash an idea to death before moving on to the next one!

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Yes, you're right about small sample sizes. We have to be very careful about them. M240 is a double-edged sword - nice setups, but difficult to analyse accurately due to the low number of them. You're also right about most of the edge being in how ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I disagree, lemna! My work is just a drop in the ocean of some of the fine analysis that goes on here at FF, whether it's done automatically by programs or manually by inspecting charts. But thanks anyway Problem update: the code was written ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thanks SputnikX. I'll be away from the thread for a few days because I think I've spotted a flaw in the logic of one of the parameters. It concerns "h Base >= h Target" stats. If so, it will change the probabilities posted above. For the better or ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs