Fair enough Calculus, you've clearly thought this through. My definition though is any out of the ordinary event unforeseen by the majority, and the time and scale of this places it in that category. It sounds like splitting hairs but every effect ...

Black swan events / CHF Peg

You made my night gumbo, truly. Enjoy

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Can't argue with your astute logic there son

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Kidding right? It was the swanniest of black swans the world has ever seen. It was the *biggest* single move in FX history. Ever. Dozens of companies went bankrupt, a few hundred investment companies, thousands of traders and not to mention a total ...

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Apples vs pears mate. A black swan is generally accepted to mean exactly at Steve says- a big unforeseen event that catches people by surprise, and the aim of this thread was looking at that from a market risk perspective. Of course the SNB knew a ...

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Prob the most important question that never gets asked, so good work for cottoning on so quick. THEN Between Reuters composite (interbank traded prices) and retail brokers the low was 12% higher (.8592 vs 0.9652 using FXCM MT4 demo) On a broker ...

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Confession, I skimmed the first post and read it as a discipline issue. It's not, it's a strategy one. Fuck me, writing a post about discipline, and I exhibit none of it. Couldn't make it up.

I can't get rid of my bad trading habits...

"There is no solution"... what?! Of course there is, but aside from automating everything and the likely fact you're overleveraged, then the answer is every bit as painful as you might imagine. All habits are repetitions of behaviour and here's the ...

I can't get rid of my bad trading habits...

Starting with jail time for anyone who's supposed to segregate client accounts when they quite clearly didn't? No chance. the idea of a benevolent ESMA looking after the interests of the poor retailers when you've got rampant fraud marauding through ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Alpari - over-exposed, over-leveraged and trades like a fucking rookie, loses everyone's money right under the nose of the FCA. Result - so-called professionals who aren't fit to manage a corner shop lead to the ESMA doubling down on their efforts ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Thought I was done here but that is a right shocker. So the administrators hoover up all the cash, and really all that counts is the £50k protection from FSCS which still takes time, all the while your cash is sown up in admin. Delta, this sage ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Hmm, I think the message I get from that is know your limits. A GBP/CHF multi-year fundamental call like that after the event is blindingly obvious but back in 2008? I salute anyone that did, but I couldn't. And didn't. My days of fundamental reads ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Ah, good old PFG Best... the closest I've ever been to losing my life savings. It was only speaking to this arrogant customer service douche that gave me second thought, right at the last minute as I was about to sign. And let's not forget about ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Red, sorry to say that's nonsense. It will apply to ALL speculative retail products in Europe. The ESMA in their infinite wisdom consider spot FX a type of CFD (don't blame me - they are regulators after all). I just called LMAX to see how the hell ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Some magnificent swearing on this thread, KK100 you have a spectacularly unique turn of phrase To Alpha's point though... This is exactly right as is Drolph's prediction of how it'll play out; the regs will be gamed for a year or two which ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Good spot. So pretty much identical to what they proposed then. 30:1 on currencies, 20:1 on metals, negative balance protection plus a few other odds and sods. By itself it's not too shabby - we'd have likely seen voluntary leverage reductions ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

research for you url

Real reason why 99% lose - daytrading

Makes a lot of sense, I was thinking of the individual trades and of course you had the whole book on your hands. Great thread, good shout for taking the time to do this, thx

Ex Insti Trader... AMA

Yeah, really difficult to untangle. All I know for sure is my own experience - I've experienced the holy trinity - shading (off market quotes), throttling (speed up/slow down so as to justify slippage/build up pressure) and 'liquidity issues' - ie ...

So brokers take trades, who cares...

Great info thanks. On 1, just trying to get a sense of the level of complexity you guys apply. would you loop between two given prices (horizontally), rising or falling channels (time-adjusted prices) or would it loop based on fluctuating values (eg ...

Ex Insti Trader... AMA