Excellent trading journal you've got here, shellsnail. I think struggling traders can learn a lot by reading your posts. And you're right, it's not about a high win rate. But many people can't handle a string of losers, or more losers than winners. ...

Testing High Leverage Compounding

So, here are the dynamic retrace results so far. All other parameters and details are the same as before: +46% for First TZs (269 trades = approx 4 trades per year per pair) +86% for All TZs (1429 trades = approx 22 trades per year per pair) This is ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thanks Bill and blueface. The method of dynamic retraces I'm currently testing is very simple and uses only one indicator. I'm pretty sure that this indi is available on any charting platform. But I don't want to say any more about it than that, ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

So, before I started testing dynamic retrace levels, I spent a bit more time with fixed retrace levels to optimise the existing parameters. A good combination for EUR.USD was 25% min / 90% max. In other words, enter at 25% and SL at 90%. The ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Hey everyone, how's it going? Have any of you found anything interesting using the indicator I uploaded? Here's a quick update from me. I've been pretty busy the last couple of weeks enhancing the indicator to test new ideas, then optimising the ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Although I don't personally need this information right now, I can appreciate the importance of it when backtesting strategies which avoid taking trades just before, or holding existing trades during, high impact news. It must have been a lot of ...

Hanover replies to PMs

You're welcome pedma Forgot to say, to get that great EUR.AUD probability I mentioned earlier, try h Min = 114 and h Max = 115, over a range of Jan 2008 to now on M240. All other parameters set to default, though to get 60 valid first opposite ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Here is the the latest stable version of my TZJ3 indicator. This one produces the reports posted earlier (but not the double sequence stats near the start of the thread), and the data for the parameter optimisation spreadsheets. It also marks the ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Yep, it's all about momentum. In trading, like in real life, there's no getting away from it. But there are scales of momentum. A retrace after a strong move typically has weak momentum. You can scalp it if that's your style, but such counter-trend ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thank you for picking up the baton and producing some stats of your own, sis. Great stuff! As well as generating new ideas, generating stats on different platforms - in order to confirm or deny mine - was one of the goals of starting this thread. ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Do you want to know an interesting statistic about TZs? Well, a couple of weeks ago Jay mentioned a high probability setup for EUR.AUD on his thread. He said that out of 59 similar setups since Jan 2008 on that pair, ALL of them reached target. He ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Sorry, my information about NinjaTrader 8 was wrong. It looks like the May 4th release will only be to an initial group of beta testers. No release date yet for the general public

Statistical Analysis of TZs

You're welcome. And good luck with NinjaTrader, there's a bit of a learning curve at first. The main reason I use it is because my broker doesn't support MT. It's also more powerful than MT from what I've heard. But I only use it for analysis - all ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thanks Saturday. So I've done some digging and this is what I've found: This post on Vlad's thread shows that the probability of 2 top CTZs in a row is 15.0% on EU M60 h=30 36600 bars. That is, 15% of all 'Top > xxx' become 'Top > Top'. 2 bottoms in ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

You mind must be fresher (and younger?) than mine because I really can't remember! Let me look it up and get back to you...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I think this highlights the risk of believing in stats and probabilities without knowing exactly what they are showing. Even I was fooled at first by those positive probabilities I posted yesterday, and I'm the one who wrote the program! It wasn't ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I wonder what his reaction was when you told him your nickname?

The Club!

Hey Almondeyed, I had some time today to look into your "scalping away from the TZ" idea mentioned here. I have some good news and bad news about it. The good news is that according to the stats it is indeed profitable over many years and many ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

So, where do we go from here? These are some of the things I still want to do: 1) Play around with the two new parameters, especially fixed h-right=90 (3 weeks on M240) for every Target 2) Continue my work with dynamic retrace levels 3) Add some ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Thank you Markus. That means a lot, coming from you

Statistical Analysis of TZs