Hi Innate, thanks for the kind words. I hope your analysis is going well too. You're welcome to post any results here, of course. Or if you'd rather discuss things privately, that's fine too. Good luck　

Statistical Analysis of TZs

So, I analysed the next 4 trades offlist as objectively and fairly as I could, considering the clarity of hindsight, and this is what I came up with: Indicator: SL=3, BE=1 With discretion: TP=1, SL=2, BE=1 The TP was a trade that the indi flagged as ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I see. Thanks for clarifiying . And yes, that broker sounds naff.

Testing High Leverage Compounding

Unlucky mate. Losing the first trade of the week is always a bummer. But if it aligned with your system then you have nothing to feel ashamed about. Get out the scotch! This is the dilemna, isn't it? Almost all consistently profitable systems ...

Testing High Leverage Compounding

Looking back at USD.CAD, it's not difficult to find the first problem area. Since the start of this year, there have been 7 setups on M240 according to how I've optimised the parameters. Out of those 7: TP=0, SL=6, BE=1, EX=0. Ouch! That's a 6% ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

I know this is a trading forum, but I personally feel that investing deserves much more priorty than trading. Even if you're lucky enough to be a talented trader who can consistently earn enough to support yourself and your family, you should at ...

Poll: Do You Trade Or Invest?

Here are a few more stats I've unearthed from Jan-2008 over 9 pairs on M240, h=30-120+. Some stats are repeated from above for convenience. I've decided to allow 8 pips per trade for total trading costs. This may be a bit too much for most trades, ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Hey ExForX, this reminds me of a great book I've got about the psychology of trading called The Daily Trading Coach by Brett N. Steenbarger. I started reading it a few years ago but didn't finish it at the time, wasn't in the right frame of mind I ...

Testing High Leverage Compounding

Thanks for posting this shellsnail. I've made the same mistakes so many times in the past, and probably will again sometime in the future. It's makes me feel a bit better that I'm not the only one, though of course I'm sorry for your loss. I wonder ...

Testing High Leverage Compounding

Yes, that EU short made my week. Only problem was that I wasn't in big enough. But if CPI had gone the other way I wouldn't be saying that Also, there's a lesson here. Just before the news I decided to take a small Nikkei short to hedge ...

Testing High Leverage Compounding

Yeah, I've had a frustrating week too. A couple of losers, a couple of winners and the rest break even. It happens! Just got to try not to let it get us down. Now short EU at 1.1198 based on M240 chart. Let's see if NY can deliver the goods

Testing High Leverage Compounding

Thanks stt. So what I really need to calculate is the average lot size per trade. I know that PnL per trade is about 0.12% of initial account, e.g. $12 in a $10,000 account if risking $100 per trade. That's an average of all trades of course - ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Absolutely! I stopped trading demo about 10 years ago. Even for new ideas I use live, but with smaller positions. You can never underestimate the psychological factor when trading. One of the best ways of reducing stress is trading with money you ...

Testing High Leverage Compounding

Not all time, just last 15 years. I won't be taking any more UJ shorts until Nikkei calms down!

EURUSD

Is it worth converting this indicator into an automatic trading system? The short answer is probably not. For the long answer, we have to estimate trading costs as best we can. This is because, as I said earlier, the P/Ls posted so far are just an ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Lower BE After correcting that mistake about the BE parameter yesterday, I decided to revisit BE and try a few more lower values (from 30% to 50%). The reason being that since TP is now 30% beyond the TZ tip, and the BE trigger is measured to the ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Dynamic TPs This one turned out to be a bit trickier than I'd imagined. There were several things to consider, such as: 1. Do you set the new TP before min retrace (entry), or after? In other words, if TP is less than TZ Tip and it hits it before ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Setting stops to break even You know, I've often wondered about the effectiveness of setting your stop to break even (or thereabouts) once a trade has started moving in your favour. On the one hand, it's very frustrating to be stopped out by a few ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Something else I wanted to mention was that the win rates (% of trades that hit TP) for these positive results varied between 43% and 57% depending on the pair (for the "All TZs" result - 1429 trades). In other words, you had to endure a lot of ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs

Nice results too, Sis! And your different pattern method is intriguing . But yes, there are many ways to trade these things. Looking forwad to the end of May results! Your mention of different timeframes reminded me of something I missed ...

Statistical Analysis of TZs