I paid 3.625% on a home I bought in September, but I think the going rate is slightly higher today... Interest payments are tax deductable in the US so the effective rate we pay is lower. This brings up an interesting point... Central banks can go ...

Macro Talk

Over the weekend I had a conversation with a very good trader friend of mine from college. He's been trading 20+ years, is very knowledgeable, and has made a fortune in the markets. During our conversation he expressed concerns to me about debt ...

Macro Talk

Japanese asset prices really needed to go up. So much bad debt for the 89 bubble, higher prices would lift the levereaged loss burden that causes depressions. Anyway, I think it was Krugman who said something like in order to get out of a liquidity ...

Macro Talk

We're going to have a low risk opportunity to short it, but not yet... I'm still waiting for breadth to break down which could be awhile. I'm thinking 'the top' might be in 1Q 2020.

Private Island Traders

TD is solid. I’ve been using them for over 10 years and have a lot deposited across 4 accounts with them. I have traded futures using TOS, but it has been awhile. I’d have zero apprehension about trading futures through TOS and I intend on soon ...

Brokers for trading metals

Thanks Ll1979, fortunately all is well. It doesn't seem like I've missed too much lately. There's been a lot of risk-on due in part to trade hopes, but it seems like that's about it. I'm not super comfortable with this because if it doesn't ...

Private Island Traders

Excellent post LloydOz! Sorry I'm just getting back to you, I have a newborn that's required most of my attention for the past week. You make a great point about a liquidity trap, but I'm more optimistic about the ...

Macro Talk

Sorry I've been quiet lately guys! Just brought my baby boy home from the hospital yesterday and probably won't be too active for the rest of the week. I'm pulling for you all in the markets though and look forward to participating here in earnest ...

Private Island Traders

Awesome! Let us know once you achieve it. Before you know it you’ll be looking back at that milestone from 1,100.

Private Island Traders

Thanks ET! I'm glad to have you here! One thing I need to explore is whether or not there really needs to be a case for a recession. You could easily point to a culprit for the past two recessions; the real estate bubble and the tech bubble. ...

Macro Talk

Very exciting! What milestone is it?

Private Island Traders

Hypothesis: A global recession will start by the end of June 2020. Supporting Evidence 1. The Yield Curve inverted in 2019 which preceded all modern recessions. image 2. Initial Jobless Claims have stopped declining. image 3. Job Openings have ...

Macro Talk

I'm going to do an exercise where I posit a hypothesis, explain my reasoning, and then attempt to disprove it. If I can't disprove it I'll assume I'm correct, if I can disprove it I will have been wrong but I'll avoid making a costly trading ...

Macro Talk

JOLTS showed job openings contracted even more. image

Macro Talk

Job Openings suggest GDP will be coming down soon: image

Macro Talk

I've shared this elsewhere before, but housing is a leading indicator of the economy and it's remarkable how well everything has fallen into place since the housing peak. image (source) It's no sure thing that we get a recession next year, but the ...

Macro Talk

It's too bad the yield curve isn't more precise on timing. Here's a table showing the recession lead time on the 3m-10y curve: image The 3m-10y curve first inverted on March 22nd, 2019 so based on the above chart our recession could start anywhere ...

Macro Talk

Btw Fader123, in addition to the yield curves the Eurodollar futures curve is a very good one to watch. It inverted way back on May 29th, 2018, well ahead of the yield curve. Unfortunately there's not a lot of material written about it, but I ...

Macro Talk

The yield curves certainly paint a negative macro picture. A lot of people have rejoiced that they've turned positive, but historically turning positive hasn't been a good thing. I still don't fully trust the yield curve though, it's failed to ...

Macro Talk

Have a great weekend detector!

Private Island Traders