Wow, a 95% drop? That would be the worst in US history. I’m thinking 35-55% which is consistent with a typical recession.

Private Island Traders

I’m with you, it’s always better to scale in.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

I couldn’t agree more. I’m considering making a big bet on gold in the near future. We’ve been in a risk-on environment lately and gold has held up reasonably well. That’s very bullish as far as I’m concerned, just wait until we are in a risk off ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Agreed. I think we're looking at a slow rest of the week unless China decides to retaliate over the Hong Kong bill.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

While it isn't inverted anymore, the signal is already in as far as I'm concerned and I'm planning accordingly. I'm still thinking we get another push higher in the S&P since we still don't have a breadth problem and I'd guess we're still looking at ...

Private Island Traders

I 2nd that, season's over... Anyone want to get a thread going for winter storms? They'll really move NG.

Hurricane Watch

I read somewhere recently that US 10y yield leads equity indexes by 21 days. I decided to chart this, the S&P is Blue and 10y bond yield is Red. image I admit the relationship looks flimsy, but if it actually holds it does look bearish for the ...

Private Island Traders

My pleasure detector. You remind me of Paul Tudor Jones who took a lot of shots at calling tops/bottoms and managed to be very successful at it.

Private Island Traders

I don’t really have any short term advice to offer unfortunately. It’s amazing you’ve been able to repeatedly short this bull market though, when we finally get a correction you stand to do very well.

Private Island Traders

I'm not sure if the PPT is a real group, but it would be useful. I've witnessed a few really bad days where the Dow was down 400pts, then 500pts, then crash mode starts and it drops hundreds of points more in a matter of minutes. It's rare that ...

WTI Crude Oil Trading

With the EIA report coming up, it was probably a good call getting out of WTI.

Private Island Traders

That's a very good book for trading. I tend to take some of the principles he talks about for granted, but they're crucial to understanding if you want to make money in the markets.

Trading audiobooks

I can't say nutrition is a big factor... I eat healthy now, bu I've gone though periods of eating very unhealthy and I've honestly never noticed much difference in performance. The one thing that does help is coffee.

Is what you eat part of your trading plan?

You're not still short the Nasdaq, are you?

Private Island Traders

Yep, I'm guessing markets in general go mostly sideways this week. There could be a good news trading opportunity if any big news does come out this week. With a lot of US traders home for Thanksgiving, it'll take longer for them to respond to new ...

Gold RIGHT NOW

I actually made a dumb mistake with corporate debt and there doesn't appear to be a problem. It was simple algebra... What I was trying to show was the debt burden of companies and the equation I used was: Debt Burden = (Debt / GDP) / Interest Rate ...

Macro Talk

To address this further... Household Debt to GDP looks good, although the GDP input can change. image Looks like households are probably okay so let's take a look at corporate debt... Corporate Debt to GDP is very high. image This makes sense ...

Macro Talk

Can an auto 'meltdown' even really happen? If one guy defaults on his payment, how much is it really going to drag the prices down on all other automobiles? Even if you wind up with a surplus of autos, it doesn't really hurt the general public since ...

Macro Talk

I admit, credibly acting wreckless with monetary policy does seem strange. However, I've come to find a lot of what works in economics is counter-intuitive.

Macro Talk

I don't think it is illegal for US citizen's to trade CFDs, but it's illegal for brokers to allow you to trade them if that makes sense. Legitimate brokers won't allow US citizens to trade CFDs. Stay away from any overseas brokers offering US ...

XAUUSD trading for US citizen