I meant opening gaps. Before opening the trade. Since the position is open after the candle closes, the current price has already gapped away from the close.

what can we do with 90% winrate?

I let them hit the SL or TP. My candles open at 00:00 GMT. I skip week-end candles. I also skip big candles. I get these losers (MM=fixed 1 uLot): LONG GBP/USD 1 Close: Wed, 12/08/2015 01:28:52.708 at 1.55594 PnL:-2.51 USD LONG GBP/USD 1 Close: Wed, ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

No HG here. From April 2007 to today on E/U daily the winrate I get is 72.1%.

what can we do with 90% winrate?

How are the gaps handled?

what can we do with 90% winrate?

You can prove that the formula holds true, asymptotically, for any MM.

what can we do with 90% winrate?

The results shown in the first post are amazing for such a simple model. Can you trust this backtest? It is written in bold and red "the results must not be considered". I'd like to try and reproduce this. Can you give more details? (I don't have ...

Trade based on Autoregressive Model

Yet you don't short because the long is in profit. You short because your intraday method tells you so. You would go short the same way if the long didn't exist.

Hedge a losing position?

That's no my assertion you know. I can't get my hand back on the paper. The guy tested various methods (R/S, wavelet, DFA). His conclusion was that R/S is the most robust and the wavelet is the worse (50K+ samples required, 65536 if you use a diadic ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

You can indeed reproduce the snowball with short only/long only. (BTW the DD is quite big with it) EDIT: 7bit already provided a .mq4 EA for it

Hedge a losing position?

My question would rather be "why isn't he opening the position at the time he releases the nedge, avoiding paying the spread twice and paying the swap while waiting to know the direction? Can you give an example? As long as you're locked in a flat ...

Hedge a losing position?

On the link you posted the author says: - In an anti-persistent time series (also known as a mean-reverting series) an increase will most likely be followed by a decrease or vice-versa. - In a persistent time series an increase in values will most ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

If I open a long and price goes up I close a winner. If I open a long and price goes down I open a short and wait it is well in profit to close the pair. I closed two positions in profit and one position in loss. I was right 2/3rd of the cases. ...

Hedge a losing position?

It is well known that daily can be up trending while M5 is going down. Having both longs and shorts when you trade both M5 and D1 make sense because actively netting out the exposure with market orders is a hassle, it increases the latency and ...

Hedge a losing position?

I read a lot about Hurst exponent. The probabilitic view a valid. It's not coming from me. Cherry pick a few of nice looking ranging periods and you'll see that H>0.5 for most of them. I also searched about estimators of its value. The best for us ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

Be careful with this simplification guys. H>0.5 means that the probability of the color of a bar to be the same as the previous is above 50%. Note how an idealized text book range fits this definition: the change of color is only at the turning ...

Just a bit of advice, for anyone, for free

i) a significant cost in establishing new positions Since you open the same number of positions you have the same cost. ii) there is a significant benefit in establishing long term positions and letting them run with the trend Since you "hedge" one ...

Hedge a losing position?

You open and close the same number of positions. You take the same number of trading decisions. You take these decisions at the same point in time. You make or lose the same number of pips. You pay more swap. How can you make sense of making more ...

Hedge a losing position?

Your example shows that is doesn't make more money and uses two positions while taking profits and re-opening a long after the retrace would also require two positions. On top you'll pay more swap. Having a short and a long at the same time in the ...

Hedge a losing position?

Let me understand that. You have 100 pips and by smartly managing your hedge you can either make no more or 10 pips less...

Hedge a losing position?

Very true. Trading and quantum physics have a lot in common. Often we play flipping a coin in this forum. Let's play pool for once! Let's say we know perfectly the initial position of the blue ball and its direction with a little error in the angle. ...

A jump to the beginning - chaos and market forces