UK IP number awful people I've spoken too are unsure how to react, market clearly lower on the shock. But most people think its an anomaly for UK data. Still quite high to buy the GBP, but on the rates side, a dip like this is quite nice. That may ...

Cross Market Analysis

JPY and nikkei diverged a bit. Our desk recos long USDJPY, but I'm much more inclined to short nikkei... especially as we've got a monster typhoon heading that way...

Cross Market Analysis

Should add - I'll post probably less than 1/10th of the research I get on here, its quite time consuming. Much easier to join my mailing list

Cross Market Analysis

kind words from all in fact! I hope we can get some good discussions going, markets are so boring these days anyway

Cross Market Analysis

kind words sir, all the best for your ventures too

Cross Market Analysis

Bank of America Technicals, some interesting ideas in there. "sell the bounce in EURUSD" "buy NOKSEK" sell USDJPY etc etc. { copyrighted attachment deleted by staff }

Cross Market Analysis

oh for sure its a strong trend, and never want to fight it for too long and become stubbornly strong. My rationale is based of the fact the markets are pricing in a 0.9% rate for December of this year (i.e. 0.75% in novemeber and 1% in Jan '15) as ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

hey guys looking at one week implied volatility, a move outside of 1.3550 and 1.3650 is now considered a >1SD move! thats crazy! Markets are so dead that a 100 pip range is considered a lot... sad times. Also, I'm no tech expert, but weekly chart ...

EURUSD

Hey guys, never posted here before, but here goes. My very quick thoughts on the GBP... It's clearly heavily bought (3 month 25 delta risk reversals close to 0) and banks desk are noting clients are heavily long. from BNP: GBP & POSITIONING Our ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

US 10 years have been strongly bid today... Back to pre-NFP levels, could be further shake out under 2.60%, likely pressure USDJPY if it continues.

Cross Market Analysis

From BNP Paribas GBP trading desk : While long GBP is the correct trade, there is a significant vulnerability at any weak data .Or if the tightening schedule comes into question I am inclined to agree... GBP vs 3 month 25D RRs, positioning quite ...

Cross Market Analysis

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Cross Market Analysis

Goldman and Citi FX desks traders notes for the day edit* and morgan stanley's and commerzbank { copyrighted attachment deleted by staff }

Cross Market Analysis

its not that they trade during news. its whether or not there has been large corp flow *before* news events, but yeh, to a dealer this information may be worth a mere pip, nothing to really care abt

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

Oh right, Because if its corporate buying, they aren't going to be forced out of a position on a slight drop etc. where as leveraged flow might be buying, but as soon as it turns (for whatever reason*) they will start to sell. * Normally news ...

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

NZD valuing can be hard... but I like this chart a lot! its 1Y carry/vol Currently at decade highs, mostly because the denominator (volatility) is very low, but also the numerator (carry) is rising. Hence meteoric rise YTD no doubt has led to the ...

Cross Market Analysis

EURUSD pin risk this week, 5.5bn or so DTCC recorded options going off at 1.36 this week selling 1W strangles may be good (not delta hedged) even though offer vol is sub 4

Cross Market Analysis

1st - you know who was on the other end of the trade, its not anonymous. So you know if its a corporate or a fund for example. Price doesn't behave differently, but you can use that information to trade differently from their on. gradually ...

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

And as stated in the intro piece, anyone wanting sell-side commentary and notes, just ask... I'll try and upload a sample here - BAML econ, Credit suisse techs, BNPP weekly Fx, Goldman Sachs technicals I have a mailing list so its no problem if ...

Cross Market Analysis

A bullish go-to chart for the AUDUSD is that of considering it as an EM proxy or a risk proxy (which are sizeable assumptions) Chart shows the AUDUSD vs the CDX emerging market - IG 5 year CDS spread. (any people trade credit here?) In other words, ...

Cross Market Analysis