Frankenpip, Why don't you disprove the following for the readers: The Nonrandom Market For the most part, commodity prices are like a drunken sailor, wandering down the street without any knowledge of where he is going, or where he has been. ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi Petra, In the spirit of this thread, I will attempt to refute at least part of your 10000 trade theory (whether I can refute that I belong to the 5% category, I don't know since I have no way of measuring the amount of people either failing or ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, The reason is very simple: because the market is NOT random. regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

It always depends on your particular vantage point of what you are trying to achieve. Your way of thinking shows what you have already mentioned, i.e. that you are a discretionary trader - so you have the ability to choose your entries/exits. I run ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

The signals/entries of the FX specific trading model are not dependent on either round numbers or stops as such. regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I don't care about stops - or hunting them for that matter. If they are in the path, I run thru them. It has nothing to do with the strategies. Don't forget that stops, where they might be placed, how many clusters, how small or large is all very ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Pip, Most of the time liquidity problems can become a real bummer when multiple (and I mean a truck load) of institutions ride the same strategy, i.e. when a great chunk of market participants started to unwind the carry trades a while ago. That has ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Ok, Modern portfolio theory describes the best results are coming from diversification of higher risk uncorrelated strategies rather than lower risk strategies with closer correlation. The problem is there are correlations even across different ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi Zkf, I know Rensink's work. I am more referring to Larry Williams work though - which I am sure came first. Price action, yes, but on daily charts rather than intraday charts. And yes, I read Crables work - which is part of the foundation of my ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Ok, thank you for your openess. Answer to 1: that is correct - but there is no need to. Answer to 2: that is correct too - fibo-hits for example occur as often as they don't in the long run, so a no-go as well (as are most indicator based ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, what type of trades (or conditions for a trade) did you experiment with? very often the solution lies outside the box, so to speak - but when eventually discovered, the simplicity of it knocks one over. regards, daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

hahaha..., yes, if you wish.

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Thank you. Look at it this way: a discretionary trader (assuming again, a profitable one) is nothing but a 'system' in itself - for the purpose of qualification and quantification, most likely a much more complicated one than a mechanical trading ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Pipmutt, Yes, you last sentence is very true - but as a trader (especially a new one) you would want to know (or at least attempt to find out) whether your P&L (assuming positive) has its roots purely in chance (i.e. in a series of 1000 throws of a ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

hahaha, Petra - good point - but knowing something without believing it is as useless as believing in the wrong. Don't worry, I work on the basis of what I know and what I believe. I don't leave any of my trades to chance - I have discovered an ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, A trader trades his belief about the market. A good trader check's out whether his/her beliefs hold up to scrutiny, i.e. tons of testing, forward or back in direction does not really matter. On that basis, probabilities are evaluated. Whether ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Mikkom, The paper becomes rather technical/mathematical (autocorrelation, kurtosis etc.) after parts I and II - but still informative. A friend of mine works at GCM who compiled the study. regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

yes, mikkom

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, Then I would conclude that the problem lies within the aspect of (in)adequate capitalization rather than the theory of trading for profits in the FX market being statistically impossible in the long run. Why should a retail trader not be in a ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, I have to disagree with your conviction - firstly, I know many traders who initially worked at the LIFFE in London (the British equivalent to the CME in the US), scalping for amounts of £10 per tick up to £10000 per tick and the same traders ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy