Submitted May 8, 2025|From newyorkfed.org

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the April 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations were unchanged over the short term, increased over the medium term, and ...

Submitted May 8, 2025|From @LiveSquawk

BoE’s Bailey: Rate Path Is ‘Gradually, Carefully’ Downwards - BBG TV - Open Minded On June Meeting - Market Implied 3.5% Terminal Rate ‘Not Unreasonable’

Submitted May 8, 2025|From @RedboxWire

UK'S STARMER: U.S. DEAL IS A TRIBUTE TO U.S.-UK HISTORY || STARMER: DEAL WILL BOOST TRADE AND CREATE JOBS UK PM STARMER: ADDING TRADE AND ECONOMY TO CLOSENESS OF U.S.-UK TIES || STARMER: DEAL IS A FANTASTIC PLATFORM, INCLUDING ON TECH SIDE

Submitted May 8, 2025|From bankofcanada.ca

Good morning. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and I are pleased to be here to discuss the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report (FSR). Each year, the Bank assesses the stability of Canada’s financial system and highlights risks that could threaten that stability. While some risks have diminished, the current trade environment has pushed risks higher overall. But let us look back for a minute before we look ahead. The country’s financial system has faced unprecedented shocks in recent years, and it has proven resilient. Households, businesses, banks and other financial institutions weathered the upheaval of the pandemic and the sharp rise in inflation and interest rates that followed. It was a difficult period for many Canadians, and pockets of stress remain. But proactive steps taken by households and businesses, together with substantially lower interest rates, put the system on a more resilient footing heading into 2025. Now, the Canadian economy and financial system face a new threat. US trade policy has taken a dramatic protectionist shift. Tariffs and uncertainty have sharply reduced prospects for global economic growth. And financial markets have been rocked by chaotic policy announcements and reversals. A long-lasting trade war poses the greatest threat to the Canadian economy. It also increases risks to financial stability. There are two key concerns. In the near term, the unpredictability of US trade policy could cause further market volatility and strains on liquidity. In an extreme case, market volatility could turn into market dysfunction. In the medium term BoC's Gov. Macklem: The current trade environment has pushed risks higher overall. BoC's Gov. Macklem: Uncertainties make it particularly difficult to anticipate risks to the financial system. BoC's Gov. Macklem: Long-lasting trade war poses the greatest threat to the Canadian economy and also increases risks to financial stability.

Submitted May 8, 2025|From bankofcanada.ca

From the time of the 2024 Report until the beginning of 2025, major central banks eased monetary policy as inflation fell worldwide. Lower policy interest rates helped reduce vulnerabilities in the financial system related to debt serviceability. Despite brief periods of volatility in global markets, Canadian fixed-income and other core funding markets functioned well, and debt issuance conditions remained solid. Banks maintained elevated levels of capital and liquid assets. Non-financial businesses also kept healthy balance sheets. As interest rates declined, the pressure on businesses and households with variable-rate debt and those facing mortgage renewals also eased. At the same time, some risks increased. Financial asset prices rose, and valuations in some markets appeared elevated. Global debt levels also increased. Leverage of some non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) continued to grow alongside a rise in their participation in core funding markets. BANK OF CANADA SAYS TRADE WAR WITH U.S. THREATENS THE CANADIAN ECONOMY AND POSES RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY BOC FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT SAYS IN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES, MARKET VOLATILITY COULD TURN INTO MARKET DYSFUNCTION BoC: Severe and long-lasting global trade war could push the rate of mortgage arrears beyond levels seen in 2008-09. BoC Financial Stability Report: We will closely watch indicators of financial stress and evidence of precautionary behavior by financial system participants.