Submitted May 9, 2025|From finance.yahoo.com

China's consumer prices fell for the third month in a row in April while producer deflation worsened, as policymakers navigate the economic impact of a trade war with the United States. The consumer price index edged down 0.1% last month from a year ...

Submitted May 9, 2025|From clevelandfed.org

My thanks to the Hoover Institution for inviting me to speak on this esteemed panel. It’s great to be back at my alma mater. I am especially grateful that yesterday I was able to join the celebration in honor of John Taylor. When we experience uncertain economic times with a wide range of possible paths for the economy, simple policy rules provide a good starting point for assessing how monetary policy may wish to respond in different scenarios. The Cleveland Fed’s website has a section that looks at federal funds rate projections based on seven simple policy rules and multiple forecasts, including the rule that John Taylor published in the year I graduated from Stanford. 1 I combine this information with a variety of economic and financial data, forecasts, and anecdotes from business and community contacts as I think about the appropriate path for monetary policy. Recently, the signals about the economy have been decidedly mixed. By many measures, the backwardlooking data have been encouraging, but heightened uncertainty surrounding government policies is clouding the outlook and raising the risks of higher inflation, slower growth, and softening in the labor market. So let me briefly share my current view on finishing the job amid new challenges in the economy. As always, the views I present today are my own and not neces Fed Hammack: Monetary Policy Modestly Restrictive Fed's Hammack: Strong Case to Maintain Monetary Policy Steady Hammack warns of increased inflation risk, reduced growth and employment

Submitted May 9, 2025|From stlouisfed.org|2 comments

Good afternoon. I would like to thank the conference organizers, Mike Bordo and John Cochrane, for the opportunity to participate in this panel with distinguished colleagues and policymakers. Conferences at the intersection of research and policymaking provide an invaluable opportunity for enriching both worlds. I will share my personal views, which do not necessarily reflect those of my FOMC colleagues.1 Let me begin by reviewing my perspective on the current state of the U.S. economy. Activity has moderated. Business and consumer sentiment has declined. Financial conditions have tightened some but remain broadly supportive of the real economy. The labor market has been cooling but remains resilient and near full employment. Inflation has declined toward our 2% target since 2022 but remains above target, and progress has been slow since mid-2024. Inflation expectations have been mixed. Near-term expectations have risen while most measures of long-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Monetary policy is currently modestly restrictive and, I believe, appropriately so for an economy at full employment with inflation above target and some measures of inflation expectations moving higher. Consequential trade, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policies are being implemented. They are intended, and have the potential, to substantially change the flow of goods, services, capital and people across and within countries, including the U.S. They are also likely to change the taxation of and the incentives for consumption, savings and producti Fed's Musalem: Avoid committing to rate cuts until impact of tariffs on inflation is evident Fed Musalem: trade de-escalation could get economy back on track Fed Musalem: rate cuts still possible if rising inflation proves short-lived, expectations remain stable, and economy weakens significantly

Submitted May 9, 2025|From federalreserve.gov

Good afternoon. Thank you for moderating, Peter. It is an honor to be with you today, and it is always great to be back at Stanford and at the Hoover Institution. I spent several formative years of my career here, including as a National Fellow, and always enjoy returning. And it is a privilege to share the panel with Dr. Schnabel, and Presidents Musalem and Hammack. I look forward to our discussion.1 Before that, I would like to briefly discuss a topic I see as critical to the future path of the economy: productivity growth. Productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in recent years, and this has influenced my view of the appropriate stance of monetary policy. I will also explore two ongoing developments that are likely to influence productivity growth moving forward: changes to trade policy and the wider adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Productivity dynamics are something I have long studied closely and will continue to pay careful attention to as I consider the appropriate stance of monetary policy. It is helpful to start by looking back about three years to the middle of 2022. At that point, the global economy had largely reopened after pandemic closures, a historic amount of federal support had been deployed, and unemployment was falling toward a half-century low. But supply disruptions persisted, and the 12-month inflation rate reached its peak at over 7 percent. The challenge for Federal Reserve policymakers was clear: Move inflation back toward its 2 percent target while maintaining the health of the labor market. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which I joined that year, began to raise Fed's Cook: Tariff policies could reduce productivity, restrict potential output, raise inflation pressure Fed's Cook: Less productive economy could require higher interest rates to control inflation

Submitted May 9, 2025|From @DeItaone

*LUTNICK: "NO CHANCE" CHINA TARIFFS WILL BE PAUSED AFTER TALKS *LUTNICK: PRESIDENT WILL KEEP "SIGNIFICANT" TARIFFS ON CHINA *LUTNICK: UNSURE WHEN FINAL TALKS WITH CHINA WILL TAKE PLACE

Submitted May 9, 2025|From @FirstSquawk|2 comments

DONALD TRUMP: EXCEPTIONS TO 10% BASELINE TARIFF ARE POSSIBLE TRUMP: BASICALLY WE'LL ALWAYS HAVE 10% BASELINE TARIFF *TRUMP: WE HAVE 4 OR 5 TRADE DEALS COMING IMMEDIATELY TRUMP SAYS HE EXPECTS A FAIR DEAL WITH CHINA