Not really. Remember that options are a play on volatility, not on direction. Wikipedia explains RRs better: A positive risk reversal means the volatility of calls is greater than the volatility of similar puts, which implies a skewed distribution ...

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

Already exists: url And it's more and more used. On 18 Jan it reported $50.2 mil in real account open positions. Today it reports $457.5 mil in open positions (4575 lots). One thing I'm not sure of is if you have two opposing positions in your ...

Trading against thy fellow trader

Yes, and also specific order book levels. I know that retail is only 10% of the market. But a big part of the other 90% is also amateurish - trades like retail. The book "Traders, Guns and Money" is full of stories about "institutional" traders, who ...

Trading against thy fellow trader

Do they still have that daily 5-15 minute market halt pause? Or are they really a 24H exchange now?

LMAX = revolution?!?

You can only see the "in the open" orders of people trading on this market. Professionals keep the orders on their computers until they are ready to submit them to the market. So if they have the stops at 1.50, you won't see them until the price ...

Is there anywhere I can see everyone's open orders

I think a better analogy would be that Deutsche Bank is doing "DB Order Flow Trading (TM)", while you are doing "Darkstar Order Flow Trading (TM)". Both use most of the same building blocks (knowing or guessing current positions, future flows, stop ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Behind Price-Orderflow

What do you think this research was done for? Fun? Unfortunately all of those articles are still not free. From one except: That sound very much like tradable stuff. Another one: Orderflow imbalance? That sounds like Darkstar Don't forget that a ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Behind Price-Orderflow

In a true ECN you can see all the open (limit) orders. You can even see when they are modified. For example on the Hotspot ECN (one of the largest in the world). Unfortunately you need to be an institution to get access to this ECN (ie: private ...

Is there anywhere I can see everyone's open orders

As retail advances, it's bound to re-discover decades old research of the pros. Order-flow articles from 10 years before FF was born: http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=orderflow&as_ylo=1992&as_yhi=1994 Ten years from now this forum maybe will talk ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Behind Price-Orderflow

I'm trading a revert to the mean system on holiday days. Basically I'm selling volatility.

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

Not really OOB (out of box), but I love trading on bank holidays, like today. The low volatility makes it feel like shooting fish in a barrel. Of course, you have to manage the occasional extended spike (favored by the low liquidity). Too bad there ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

But take advantage of what? When you see a move, how do you know if it's triggered by a large commercial order or a large speculative order? Besides, commercial aren't stupid. They won't dump a 500 mln order in one piece on the market (or theirs ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

But less than 2% of volume is for commercial purposes like in your GE example (Oanda source). That's even less than the retail volume. If I remember correctly they are one source of the fundamental trends (import-export trade flows). I don't find ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

Well, I'm a computer programmer which actually worked on audio software . So I have a good understanding of this whole analog->digital->analog thingy. I was just pointing out that you only lose what you don't really care about. If you would care, ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

It doesn't work quite like that. Yes, information is lost, but only information BELOW your required precision (number of bits). And the "jagged" signal is identical to the original "smooth" signal from a mathematical point of view ABOVE the required ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

Maybe you should start trading options if you like 3D image image

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

You forgot that forex is a zero-sum game. Spot market is $1.5T. Thus retail is $150B. If retail in aggregate loses 1% of it's account each day, that would be $1.5B daily profit for the other side(s). But more importantly, retail is the weak hand at ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

I will provide the paper link in one month, after I finish the first phase. Linking it now has a high risk of compromising my operation. You will understand in one month why. Retail forex accounts for 10% of the market. That's more than C, GS or ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

Why do most assume that thinking inside the box is not profitable, but outside is? Market making is as old as the markets, but it is still profitable and will continue being so as long as markets exists. Of course, the methods change, but the basic ...

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

In practice it doesn't work like that. Consensus is always priced in into both the current price and the futures price. The difference between them is just the cost of financing the position (the carry cost). To give an example, if people believe ...

Pricing in?