What about EUR.USD? Are you still long? I'm long just a little but entered too early (around 1.13), with SL just below 1.10. Still expecting upside to around 1.18 before the big drop, so I'm holding for now.

Using Balance and Unbalance to your advantage

No, not snobby or obtuse at all. Thank you for your thoughts

Using Balance and Unbalance to your advantage

Thanks, gspajon. And no rush to reply of course. Regarding the false breakouts, I agree that they should be properly defined before any analysis is possible. Much the same as your "returning to the area" statistic - you must have defined it in order ...

Using Balance and Unbalance to your advantage

Great thread gspajon. Thanks for all your hard work I have a couple of questions, if you don't mind. 1) You mentioned that about 80% of the time price retreats back to the breakout zone before continuing, which allows you to enter more ...

Using Balance and Unbalance to your advantage

Thanks guys. Absolutely! I always thought that the reports were basically honest, if not always accurate due to the reasons you mentioned, and couldn't understand why so many people here had the notion that the banks were trying to trick them into ...

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

I have another question for the ex-institutionals, if they don't mind. It's regarding the "notes to clients" that the banks publish from time to time and appear on the FF news feed, such as this one last week (containing EURUSD projections) from ...

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

Hey ffleo, finally had a chance to look into this. You mean large speculators breaching the extreme of -200k? The last time they did that in June 2012 pretty much marked the end of the bear run and the start of the move from 1.20 to 1.36 (and ...

EURUSD

Thanks. Need to start looking into that. I'm guessing not much use on its own? But combined with everything else...

EURUSD

Got stopped out at 1.1050 following the CPI news. Currently flat. I think it might go a bit higher now so waiting for a better price to short. Actually the daily was starting to look bullish to me before the news (shown below), and CPI helped ...

EURUSD

Well done Max . Still adding to my long-term shorts, average price now 1.11. Let's see what happens

EURUSD

Thanks GM, that's what I suspected. I suppose it doesn't really matter which way round it is, as Skenobi pointed out, but I was just curious. And I agree that retail traders have virtually no chance of taking advantage of these arbitrage ...

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

Yes, that strong move up after I'd gone to bed was a bit of a surprise. A bit of manipulation going on there I think. No matter, still looks bearish to me on the big timeframes so I'm still holding my long-term shorts from 1.1050. In fact, if it ...

EURUSD

Yeah maybe, but this is a long-term trade for me. And it still looks bearish on daily, weekly, H4 on my charts. Not to mention fundamentally! As for the NFP data, no-one really knows that yet so can't speculate there. However, I'm a bit concerned ...

EURUSD

The 1.08 handle has been hard to crack, hence first target at 810. It should reach at least 1.0650 if it breaks (but probably not today). If it goes higher than I'll short some more. This is a bear market, you know

EURUSD

Still short from 1.1050. First target is 1.0810, but may go much lower than that. I see nothing on the chart to change my opinion at the moment.

EURUSD

Interesting read srmfx, thanks! I suppose "nyk" means New York office?

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

Hey Skenobi, thanks for the quick reply. You're a star That's interesting about the institutions working together sometimes. I guess that's what some folk would call "market manipulation" and get all worked up about. Personally I have no ...

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

Hi Skenobi, Jacob and the other (ex-)institutional guys tracking this thread. Thank you very much for your answers and insights so far, it's all very interesting and generous of you. I've read the first few pages and haven't found the answers to my ...

Is anyone here an institutional trader?

Hey Bernhard, I use Interactive Brokers. They aren't perfect but all in all a good broker I think. One advantage is that you can trade just about anything in the world with them. Commission for N225M is 80 yen per contract round-turn, and my stop ...

Nikkei 225

Yep, this excellent post pretty much sums it up, at least how I see it right now. I think it's almost impossible to differentiate between a false breakout and a true one (start of trend) just before or at the exact moment it's happening. The big ...

The Only Real Edge: Trading from Breakeven