One can demonstrate that the signed distance between the two MAs is directly proportional to the trend slope of the time horizon defined by the slow MA. The histogram of the MACD is a trend-meter. Therefore the crossing is a change of sign of the ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

This being said I'm very interested in your way to manage the positions without using standard deviation or at least quantiles of some distribution. I'm all ears.

Market Neutral Corner

Care is to be taken when using correlation coefficient. You may well find fake relationships due to a "third party" correlator, usually USD. For instance you would easily find a high correlation between USD/CAD and WTI oil. Yet this correlation is ...

Market Neutral Corner

To me the reason is simple: this method is simply nonsensical! The line of the MA is an estimator of the equilibrum price. This means it is the best estimation of the fair value within your time horizon of trading. When you buy at the price just ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

If the variance of the RW is big enough the trend is "scrambled" and no longer appear on an acf/pacf. It's a good idea. A system that is highly dependent on the market conditions will perform poorly when the conditions aren't met. Conversly it is ...

Automated trading algo generation

You won't find that because a technical indicator doesn't compound any return. It doesn't make money. An indicator has no win rate. Take the 2 MA crossover as an example. The bullish/bearish bias this indicator gives is not a trigger to open a ...

Scientific studies on technicals

By understanding where the formula is coming from. What is computed. For instance RSI estimates where the price is in the horizontal range of the N(=14) previous bars. Knowing this makes you immediately understand that the RSI expects a ranging ...

What really is divergence?

Copernicus you can make the model arbitrarily complex. I just wanted an example of a model contradicting the hypothesis which is both very simply and where the sign of the feedback is trivially obvious. Per definition it is persistency but it isn't ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

positive feedback = trend and negative feedback = range? No! Let's build a random walk with a very unfair coin. The rules to build the walk are the following: - The moves are either +1 (up) or -1 (down) - If Head then the move is the same as the ...

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

I didn't say it is impossible. I'm not saying unicorns don't exist. I just never saw one. I answered the OP that asked for someone with such a system and yet being unprofitable in order to improve his MM. Such a system is near HG. Noone can possibly ...

Interested in 50% accuracy + 20SL/60TP entries

You are kidding of course? How can someone with such a system be possibly non-profitable? Given your specs a trader with this system should approximately 10 fold his account every year with no significant DD just using 1% MM...

Interested in 50% accuracy + 20SL/60TP entries

Your answer is quite surprising because mathematically MACD is an estimator of the trend...

Cycle measurement: the easy way

You may search here if by any chance it does already exist: url Or kindly ask here to get it made: url They have lots of MT4 indis ported to .lua

FXCM Trading Station indicators, MT4, and pitview

If the day is your smallest unit and the year the maximum length and if you want the average, shouldn't you calculate the actual average? Because between a day and a year, we have the intermediate intervals as, DAY, 2 DAYS, 3 DAYS, ... , and YEAR." ...

(binned per thread starter’s request) Chapter 1 - reference point

As I explained and unlike what the screenshot suggests the goal is not to pick entries. It is to reduce the residual oscillations of a trend measurement. What is the "good oscillator" you use? Based on which criteria do you consider it good?

Cycle measurement: the easy way

Waoo! This thread already got hijacked in less than 10 hours. Let's try nonetheless... Redlion would you deduct of this picture that it is all randomness? image This is the equation to generate the 1st picture: 0.0013t + 9²ε Got it?

Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

A prediction requires an estimation of the error. Here is a version of mine. The green shade is the estimated possibilities. It is a 20-NN. The metric is the euclidian distance of the close prices. There is no rescaling as in the indicator you ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

I think you're inverting the cause and the consequence. The market doesn't reverse down because the retailers are long. It is the opposite! Retailers take profit immediately when they are in trend and let their losers run during adverse move. See ...

Why it is possible to predict price movement?

Make things worse. 1.0 for the 2nd TP is no better image

what can we do with 90% winrate?