Unwinding of the carry trade, I was caught up in that about this time last year, not nice (understatement!). So you're one of these guys running stops are you, tsk tsk, it must be great fun to have the ability to move the market, I'd probably get ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I guess that contributes to the reasons why some funds struggle to produce even double digit returns while the average intraday trader can often produce triple digit on a reasonably sized account. It makes you wonder how some of these large funds ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Oh come on, seriously! Hardly extensive research is it! Draw a trendline, draw a channel, look at retracements, confluence, price action.....crikey draw anything, there are literally thousands of possibilities! I get exasperated when I read this ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Isn't that just (a complicated version of) an equity curve?

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Points taken, actually thinking more about this I think it's difficult for me as a predominantly discretionary trader to fully appreciate that other traders are obviously successfully using purely mechanical systems able to be quantified, these ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I guess what I'm having trouble understanding is why anyone would need to know those stats, especially when the numbers can change according to market dynamics. A system with a great expectancy measure today could be turned on its head tomorrow, ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I can't believe you're using words like 'evidence', 'will', and 'know' when talking about price direction! How about using 'probability' and 'strategy' instead?

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I had to come back on this.... Flexibility of trade size with no minimum means retail forex traders are able to apply the same conservative money and risk management as any other market or well capitalized trader, even with just a few hundred ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I'm sure you'll understand if I decline your generous offer, there's no mileage in it for me as I don't really need confirming what I already know from practical experience. Understandably you're skeptical which is fine, I probably would be too in ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

That's exactly what it is, mathematical theory, it has little or no resemblance to reality. There are many strategies and systems which have stood the test of time and are just as effective today as they were 10, 20, or even 30 years ago! Why ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Thanks for the excellent posts and articles daytrading, I might not always agree with everything you say but you make a great debate!

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I'm trading the market as it is in reality with no preconceived ideas of what a trade might or might not offer, it could be a quick scalp or a longer term positional trade, the market makes that decision and it has a funny way of disregarding ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

No need, it doesn't have any rigid rules apart from limiting initial risk, a good strategy reacts and adapts to the reality of the market which seems like the logical thing to do in my opinion. Long periods of drawdown are totally unnecessary, they ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

How about if it's definition is a complex set of variables on variables? Does it make any difference if it's edge is quantifiable, whose benefit is that for, a statisticians? Isn't the important thing consistency and profitability ie practical ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

If you're talking about Black Wednesday Soros wasn't overleveraged, in fact his risk was quite reserved, not forgetting he also had the Bundesbank on his side

james16 Chart Thread

Hi Kris, it was post #7 but no worries, I think we're pretty much saying the same thing (great minds think alike.....I conveniently forget the rest of that saying ) Nice site by the way, some very useful links and reports, thanks!

How do you handle fundamental analysis?

Negative sum, another blinkered assumption from the math and stat gurus that speculative forex trading is zero or negative sum (the operative word being speculative, not all transactions in the market are for speculation, there are many different ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Are you saying a discretionary trading method has no edge? From your other posts it seems like you're saying trading isn't profitable, period. What a very odd assumption to make! Sorry but that is absolute nonsense. Plenty of impressive theory and ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

daytrading, thanks for the explanation, it kind of makes sense to me but I don't want to hijack the thread so I better leave it there! I'm still not sure what a matrix would make of my last 1000 trades, there would only be one fairly static rule ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Ok and this is where I get stuck. How can a discretionary strategy which has only very basic fixed rules (ie maximum worst case risk) and which constantly changes according to market conditions be presented mathematically as having a statistical ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy