Ok, now this is interesting. So why did you decide to go that route instead of saying you've had more blacks so it's about time for another red. I might be misreading this, I see so out of 18 spins you take the leader? Do you wait for all 18 before ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Thanks!

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Thanks, the curve has been a fairly comfortable place to be so far. I see what you're saying, I think, but your mathematical theory seems to hinge on the market being totally unpredicatable, like a coin flip. If the market isn't random (which it ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Isn't that a contradiction? Sure if you stay with the same color it will more than likely eventually show up, maybe martingale until or does, or until you go broke, or until you reach the table limit....whichever comes first I'll admit I'm not a ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Sorry, setting a daily target is not the way to trade. The market only offers what it offers, it won't care about your goals. If you achieve your goal and stop then you're denying yourself further opportunities to profit. If you miss your goal what ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

No no no, you take the opportunities when they arise. Just because you've had a dozen winning trades it doesn't mean there's any less chance of the next trade being profitable, the probability is the same as it was for the first trade being ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

What exactly are you suggesting happens after 100/1,000/5,000/10,000 trades, their strategy stops working and they suddenly start losing until all their previous gains are lost? Why does trade number 10,000 have any less probability of being ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Ok, now this is turning into something out of an episode of X-Files! Predictable roulette, seriously? Hmmm I suppose anything is possible, have you found any correlation to the number of gamblers who bet red or black and the outcome of a spin, ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

You might have taken "thinking outside the box" just a little too far outside, you may want to re-think your strategy

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Yep, fair point, I stand corrected!

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

A very significant point, and one which retailers for example spend billions of dollars every year on analysing in order for them to exploit it, even down to finding patterns in consumers unpredictable impulses.

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi FrankenPip It's an information game. The market isn't random, there are clear and concise reasons for every change in price, price doesn't just change on it's own for no reason. I think it was you who asked earlier if we could predict every tick. ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

The random vs non random debate, another exercise in futility. Those who can identify repeating patterns and exploit them obviously know they exist, period.

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

ECN's like MBT are fine but they're still counterparty. They do actually say they offset trades on an STP (straight through processing) basis, but they're still intermediary between you and their liquidity provider, they have to be because you don't ...

If we trade "off-exchange", with whom do we "exchange" with?

I wonder if there's a mathematical way to present an exercise in futility. You're preaching to people who have first hand practical experience of the longevity of trading spot forex. The one's who haven't will try regardless of any scaremongering so ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Firstly, off-exchange (or OTC) doesn't mean 'off the real market', it means trades are executed between two parties as opposed to through an exchange, ie off-exchange. Brokers derive their prices from various liquidity providers and then adjust them ...

If we trade "off-exchange", with whom do we "exchange" with?

a)faith in your system Confidence in the strategy, and more importantly the ability to trade it. if so, what gives you that faith Practical results. All the mathematical argument in the world can never win while there are traders consistently making ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Understood, thanks for the clarification.

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Maybe not dependent but you wouldn't pass up the opportunity to get a better price would you? Chances are there are stops around 1.70, in fact just looking at a chart around the 5th it looks like it was perfect, 1.7040 and then a 6 cent drop. If ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Really? So say you wanted to short Cable and price is 1.6970, you wouldn't try to trigger stops above 1.70 and then short it? I thought that was a tactic of the institutionals.

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy