leg D of the pattern failed to complete, near new low before the EU summit. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

Euro long based on the standard Gartley pattern, of course the pattern would fail, statistically. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

6/27/2018 session5: Long Euro again. with no hedge. with tight stop.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

6/27/2018 session4 recap: stopped out. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

6/27/2018 session4: Long Euro. bad news from Italy but the U.S. dollar sentiment may be worse: Gold showed a sign of temporarily rebound; 10 year T bond yield down today. will limit the max accumulative position to narrow the risk, since no hedging ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

two upcoming events on Euro: 0400am EST EURO M3, insignificant to price change. image 0830am EST US CORE DURABLE, significantly relative to price change. if better than expectation, surely bad for Euro dollar in the next 30 mins, and vise versa. ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

6/27/2018 session3: strong support at 1.1637 for Euro spot. image bearish news for now. image the move will probably not happen untill 4:00am est. will prepare for that.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

done for today. Euro is losing steam, volatility is narrowed. probably will move to Yen before U.S. data tomorrow. as 8:30am est Core Durable Goods Orders may change the situation.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

image daily change distribution for Euro. there is no news so i am not expecting more drop today.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

image Euro downtrend reinforced. Migrant issue may drag down it in next few days. Yen weakened. however Gold rebound had not finished.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

the price is out of the divergence zone now. today's move is not finished - either rebound or keep dropping. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

entered into the comfort zone, have lowered down the hedge leg. out of the algo zone now. holding net short position, target below 1.1728 for Sep EUR/USD. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

the grey box is like this now. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

this deterred my confidence of holding the short, as i did not see volume on the downside.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

main stream media preferred the "delayed" news, reporting a weakening dollar when it was actually rebounding. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

short range trading. my short starts to win, long hedge will be stopped at 1.1710 level. yet the direction for today is not confirmed, i will keep the long hedge to lock some profit first. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

Gold is heading to new low, this will add more pressure to major currencies. Euro, Sterling and Yen are reluctant to drop but on the right track. 28 more pips of drop will send the Euro out of the divergence zone. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

6/26/2018 session3: started short Euro, as gold down, USD would rise again after the adjustments.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

6/26/2018 session3 plan: the divergence zone shows that 71% probability the price will lay out out of the grey box today. image the weak gold is much more straightforward and clear. this indicate a strong dollar. i tend to hold short bias on Euro. ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

62% 1.1718 for spot Euro/USD accomplished, now it becomes a resistance. market sentiment had changed since BOE signaled a possible earlier rate hike last week. temporarily bad for USD, good for other currencies. image however 62% is still an ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX