That was interesting: on all systems and variations the WIN % increased with each higher TF. Maybe it's the spread in relation to SL or the general greater SL for higher TF not sure - will find out. With the different pairs it was not as clear cut - ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

In general I think Risk:Reward can vary: for manual trading it did vary a lot (but probably partially because of human reaction (for better or worse) but for my automated system I choose to keep it at a fixed ration of R:R 1:1. You are absolutely ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

Found with the 17 pairs and over the 5 years backtest data a couple of strategy options to generate higher Win% by RR 1:1. But the number of resulting trades is in comparison low - so I'm considering to lower me MIN required WIN% to 57 %. the other ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

Conclusion: I need at least WIN %: 58 to make it worthwhile. Worst expectation: to End after 1000 Trades: -22.5% ( if I'm unlucky and End it on the expected Worst MAX DRAW DOWN)

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

PROCEEDING with my system: * I like the Monte Carlo Simulation thing - because of this I will proceed like this. 1. Define my Lowest acceptable WIN% (using R:R 1:1) considering the "Worst case" of: 200000 Monte Carlo Simulation: - each sequence of ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

hi deltatrade, Just wanted to say THANKS.... for pointing me to the Monte Carlo Simulation. I find it quite helpful. THANKS

Money Management

Thanks JGray, You also need up win% and dn win%: Not exactly sure what you mean: Max DrawDown in % I settled for MaxRunDn.RMultiple: which of course can easily be converted to Account % - Depending What one Risks per Trade (RMultiple) If you meant ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

Monte Carlo Simulation: Confidence Level Matrix: Is the percentage over all MonteCarlo Sequences: e.g. in the Post above attached file: WIN %Column: Above 60% MonteCarlo Confidence %: 53.70 means: of the 5000 MonteCarlo Simulation Sequences: 53.7% ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

update: 2013.04.30: in case someone ever wonders: in the attached file there are still errors: the Max.Consecutive LOSS are not correct. Found a problem. Monte Carlo Simulation for MT4 This is what I came up with: maybe it inspires some others or ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

Decided to code an own Monte Carlo Simulation for my integrated MT4 system. for an Excel version see: deltatrade's : url there is a Version 3 at Post# 11

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

My planned approach from above did not work out as planned: so I'm doing it now differently. will run all tests over the whole 5 years and over each year separately. (had to code the yearly split option)

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

My current backtest process: I do not use MT4 Strategy Tester but have implemented my own small Test suit as an Indicator. I call them: PseudoTrades I run only rough tests: no tick data but Entry - and check if a bar hits SL or TP first. In case the ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

hi deltatrade, I'm not exactly sure how you use your excel / what are you looking for. Look at the pic attached: Ok example: I have Trades 5 PIP SL - 5 PIP TP Win % 50 What are you looking for: The -4 (this are % aren't they) Draw Down on the ...

Money Management

I decided to keep some notes how my automated MT4 system develops: Maybe once in a while I get some useful feedback. ----- At present: START REAL TRADING: Current decision: Once I start real trading I will use in the beginning a higher Win% with ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

hi deltatrade, Thanks for the feedback: I tested the whole thing on 5 years and the results for each year is very much in line. Only I'm not sure how to handle / account for Max consecutive Losses: they are pretty low but what I'm more worried about ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

did some small changes on the period converter: url maybe someone finds it useful: //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| 20130424: ATI: changed //| - filename to external input parameter //| - iTimeShiftHours ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

A bit off-topic: just for anybody who might read this in the time to come: -M1 historical data: http://www.fxdd.com/mt/en/forex-reso...1-minute-data/ -and a Period converter might be also handy: url url

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

Not a big dilemma but I don't believe that I can count an the same results when live trading. So I think choosing my best option/even improving it (without destroying it) would be only a wise thing to do. Anyway, I never used MT4 for automatized ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

Not much curve fitting done. But of course I played a bit around with different SL distances and implementations. Anyway I will adjust my backtest code model a bit to better implement the suggestion of 60minuteman I had already implemented most of ...

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists

hi PipMeUp, Thanks a lot. Obviously your math brain is much more developed than mine Thanks a lot for the Histo data link. I will have to look into it if there is a way to import them into Metatrade 4. Very kind of you.

Question for experienced trade system creators and theorists