FOMC won't be a game changer, or even probably interesting. We'll be lucky to get a 40 point move! USDJPY overnight vols only marked higher by 1 point. markets see a breakeven range of 26 pips. (i.e. if you get long vol via options. the market only ...

Cross Market Analysis

Morgan stanley / Credit Suisse / BAML's trade recos and thoughts for the day. p.s. my mailing list is now on 30, more are very much welcome!

EURUSD

up to 30 on the mailing list. keep 'em coming.

Cross Market Analysis

Portuguese-German 10Y spread... blow out today. Likely weighed on the EUR a bit, but no real concern.

Cross Market Analysis

Interesting read url

EURUSD

thanks! the BoE will watch IP, but its hardly an important indicator compared to many others. our economics desk thinks it was purely an anonymous print and doesn't signal any weakness in the UK economy. hence btfd!

Cross Market Analysis

yeh, sorry. I should rephrase... How does it work? saying "strength" doesn't exactly mean anything? what are the parameters etc

Cross Market Analysis

what is CSM?

Cross Market Analysis

USDJPY found support again! christ this thing is getting tiresome. 200 point range for the entire year almost.

Cross Market Analysis

EURUSD hourly... trapped this week at 1.36, large option expiries keeping it pinned as hedging flow rules over the boring summer markets limited upside, maybe takes some stops at 1.3650 out, but little legs in it for sure. edit - added DTCC chart of ...

Cross Market Analysis

Some traders thoughts...

Cross Market Analysis

Football got in the way, but was gonna post this earlier. all vis a vis the USD Change in 2Y rates vs Change in Spot rate. Pretty strong relationship. Only main outliers are AUD which I highlighted in one of my charts anyway.

EURUSD

sweet, not many people on here like talking macro or about vols it seems. most stick to techs...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

yep still working. However macro strategy & research. not sales & trading anymore... I normally live over on this thread ( url )

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Fair enough. You work / worked on an options desk per chance? I've spent a bit of time managing the EUR options book at a tier-2 bank. Love options and Vol!

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

haha well unfortunate for them I say... doesn't help being on a triple plate boundary! poor sods. Still, I don't expect *much* market impact from this weather

Cross Market Analysis

They were out with a sell reco y'day, but this was from the Tech desk (curry - he has an awful track record btw) He reiterated his call today, so that might be the recording. Here is the inital piece from BAML

EURUSD

Q2 is the market implied time. roughly. This is the futures implied Fed funds (base rate) curve. expected to be at 0.5% in 1Y

EURUSD

This is 100% true, no doubt about scaling to show different things! But this is why I tend to model interest rates to currencies, removes this issue partially, however suffers from some auto-correlation issues, but its still the best way around it ...

EURUSD

One truly wonders... With; a "supertyphoon" en route to Japan... (probably over-exaggerated imo) US equity looking to tip over in the near term / Nikkei looking even more vulnerable JPY vols insanely cheap almost no risk reversal on shorter dated ...

Cross Market Analysis