BULLS - keep ignoring the 'smart money' commercial record net short and the cycles/seasonals at your own peril. Keep ignoring that the aussie is way over valued. The BIG BEAR IS HERE

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The US Dollar index has an UP cycle/seasonal lasting until the end of march which doesn't necessarily bode well for the AUD.

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tHE BULLS NEED TO BE SCARED

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I'm no EWC fan. I'll look at it for entertainment purposes only. Everybody and their uncle has a different interpretation of it. Just like opinions : EVERYBODY GOT ONE. And of course, bulls always can find their own reasons for any market to ...

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BULLS - If you go long the aussie, be very careful. Use tight stops. If ya make a few pips, mo power to ya, bro.

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Bearish momentum divergence

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We haven't visited the monthly 50 MA (turquoise line) since july 2010. 50 MA currently @ 9627. Never ignore the long term charts and only use short term charts for timing purposes. Unless you're just a scalper.

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The ole adage : SELL HIGH and BUY LOW - what goes up must come down. (and vise versa) Folks, we're way up at the HIGH end in the big picture.

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STOCHASTICS - I'm not a big fan of stochastics. In a trending move they can go to an extreme reading and stay there for a long time. (area between the white vertical lines). I prefer to buy/sell retracements back to the MAC channel (red and green ...

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Notice how the volatility has waned in the aussie. (weekly bars getting smaller and smaller) BIG volatility will always return. The bulls are wore out and tired, ran out of steam. The public is at or near record longs and that means when the market ...

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Amen

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The aussie bull market ended way back in july 2011. We've been in a trading range ever since. It will eventually break out of the trading range and the underlying conditions are screaming that the breakout will be to the downside. The last major leg ...

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The number one problem with many traders is that they are thinking wrong. They think its the charts that move markets. Nothing could be further from the truth. Its the 'CONDITIONS' that move the markets not charts. The charts only reflect the ...

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[quote=forexalien;6395553]What made you use 30 weeks vrs 21 weeks or etc.? I saw your lines , I had a 38 period move that I was looking at also[/quote No particular reason other than the fact the turning points were hitting like clock work on the ...

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Looks like we're on the same page.

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Good things come to those who wait.

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COT indicates the aussie is a screaming SELL. Note : the COT is not a timing indicator. When it reaches an extreme polarized reading (commercials at extreme opposite of the large specs public ) its telling us that its time to follow the 'smart' ...

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The bollinger bands (wkly chart) are pinching tighter together indicating a big move is imminent. With the COT commercials at an extreme net short position the most likely breakout will be to the downside.

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30 WEEK CYCLE Here is an interesting angle on the aussie $. We find major turning points aprox. every 30 weeks. Counting ahead 30 weeks from the most recent line projects another major turning point out in the middle of april. With the heavy ...

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If it gives you holding power without costing you much, then it too is good DB. Let er rip. lol Not arguing at all. If it works for you then its all a good thing.

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