No-one will ever know, sometimes it just happens. What makes us, is how we react to divergences. Also, I've never understood why the retail crowd are still so attached to technicals! but I'll be sure not to mention that elsewhere

Cross Market Analysis

one thing you've got to remember, hardly anyone (with size) trades based upon technicals. To think that technicals "cause" a move is very dangerous thinking. They don't. There is no debate to that. Some indicators tend to have a >50% hit rate, but ...

Cross Market Analysis

for those wondering, here is Reuters matching prices (mid) going into the close... quite choppy in the last 35 seconds on matching

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I *dont* work at MS, they just happen to have put a note out that was *very* similar to what I wrote about... hehe, MS' fair value model is 1.1021. So different to me.

Cross Market Analysis

its fine, I encourage people to ask away... its kinda my job anyway!

Cross Market Analysis

the vast majority of market making is of course algo based... but the dealers will still run some inventory risk and especially as majority of eFX volume will be routed through NY once LDN desks go home, the LDN traders books may not be up to date ...

Cross Market Analysis

I only said that because they the dealers might have gone into the weekend net short due to size of move, and won't like the gap between them leaving their desk and where it will be coming 7am monday... nothing much tho, maybe 10-20 points.

Cross Market Analysis

Here... VERY quick model for the USDCAD based upon interest rate spreads etc. Fair value ~= 1.0960. (but +/- 50 pips imo, not many filters on this model) Thats therefore my medium term target.

Cross Market Analysis

Can't really look at it like that, more the direction they go. For example over the past month or so, the USDCAD has weakened, while at the same time the interest rate spread has increased. Now its quite clear to see that this is strange. Its quite ...

Cross Market Analysis

40 is better than none plus lots of short covering post Europe close, ldn/eu desks may reverse that come monday/tuesday.

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I am aware of that... my shop was one that predicted a weaker number, just not this weak!

Cross Market Analysis

Furthermore, USDCAD vs interest rate spreads show its still lagging behind a lot (probably because all those short covered and pushed the CAD higher.) and for those tech fans, its as simple as this chart.

Cross Market Analysis

USDCAD an interesting one today... big move higher as macro CAD longs being stopped out / liquidating their longs... Compare the two positioning indicators from BNP P... At the end of March, the CAD was the most shorted currency in the majors, today ...

Cross Market Analysis

up to 40 on teh mailing list!

Cross Market Analysis

Weekly strategy notes from -HSBC -BNP Paribas -Societe Generale -Bank Of America -Citi -Morgan Stanley Enjoy! { copyrighted attachment deleted by staff }

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One possible play is a bull flattener of the US yield curve... but in all honesty. Us bonds will probably be quite sluggish either way due to the disinflationary environment and Jap/Chinese underlying bid... In FX space, something like AUDUSD would ...

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sorry don't have any commod notes post fomc

Cross Market Analysis

Looking at the Eurodollar term structure is always interesting, especially after the FOMC minutes where U5 ticked up about 8 points. we see the current termstructure pointing to a 3M USD LIBOR at 2% at the end of 2016... this is contrast to the ...

Cross Market Analysis

Must read - url

Cross Market Analysis

the 34 of you on my mailing list, check yo inbox. Goldman Sachs Weekly Technicals BNP P Macro analysis CitiBank weekly technical roundup Emerging markets weekly European economics analysis JP morgan Fixed income technicals Barclays FOMC/FED analysis ...

Cross Market Analysis