out of short 0903 will reload at 0920. I don't think this will end. We're going to target 0850

The Swamp

The risk off mood is really persistent. Looks like the hong kong issue is more worrying than it looks. I think it has to do with holidays next week too. Probably people squaring positions in case things turn worse.

The Swamp

very nice find. I've been looking for something like this for a while. Everything in 1 clean chart

The Swamp

Unlikely the market will react to that. He is only doing an opening speech. He tends to keep those neutral. Trump has a higher chance to move the market with his random anti china rhetoric.

The Swamp

Long eurgbp is a good pair to look at. Fundamentally and technically seems supportive of a long.

The Swamp

Closing some of my longs 0993. Leaving a bit just in case they run higher.

The Swamp

best be careful going long pound. The talks about -ve rates would send gbp down. The bias should be bearish.

The Swamp

the default since monday was risk on. the past 1 - 2 hour, only the china trade deal retaliation news held the eu bulls. Otherwise we should have been higher already. At the moment, the biggest threat to the eu bulls is china US trade war rethorics. ...

The Swamp

Before covid19, the yen is a safe haven currency. So if risk is on, you would sell yen. If risk is off, you would buy yen. But nowadays the yen is doing its own thing.

The Swamp

The real question here is: is there anything that will make eu drop? If there isn't any, the price will continue to creep up while torturing bulls and bears. The guessing game here is where we think resistance will be. My guess is 0985

The Swamp

That's exactly what he's doing. Blame game. Everything he does is to blame china. That's sort of his election campaign right now.

The Swamp

After powell's speech last night, there's no reason to be bearish dollar. The whole -ve rate play is unwinding. The big guys put money into that idea for almost a whole entire month. It's not going to unwind in 2 days. There should be more dollar ...

The Swamp

powell threw a wet towel on the market. Big guys have been pricing in a -ve rate and today powell just said no. Be careful if you're dollar short.

The Swamp

also... trump is talking right now. NFp might not matter at all.

The Swamp

algos don't care. If numbers are better than expected, they will sell EU. But after that the humans will come in. And likely they will buy eu. The numbers beat estimates for sure... But it's still 20mil jobs.

The Swamp

Fed is throwing in the kitchen sink this time. Best not be long dollars... unless you want to go against the fed. Seems like the fed is happy to come out with some easing news whenever bad numbers come out. Totally expecting the fed to say something ...

The Swamp

as useful as china signing a bill urging donald trump to lift trade tariffs.

The Swamp

Just saying this time nfp event is a no event. Market hardly moving.

The Swamp

This time the nfp numbers are a non event. The real deal was yesterday's jobless claims. Nfp only tracks up to 13 march. Back then US hasn't done much lockdown yet. And claims were still hovering around 300k-ish.

The Swamp