They've already done quite a bit of monetary stimulus. We'll see what they do on the fiscal side. They're not going to beat the virus per se, but they can try to offset the economic damage it does.

Copper for everyone

I was studying more forecasting with R and came across something neat. Using the ets() function, R will pick the best model for you automatically. Here's the code I'll use to forecast next week's Unemployment Claims data: library(quantmod) ...

Metals (data) Mining

I've studied sentiment at various times throughout my trading career and haven't managed to find anything reliably predictive. Its unfortunate because the theory behind it makes a lot of sense, I just haven't seen it useful in practice. This is an ...

Retail Sentiment Fallacy?

How'd you wind up doing?

Silver market, what the hell

The actual came in at 205k so the holt model came the closest. This has been interesting, I think I'll make some more forecasts. Who knows, maybe I'll be able to make something useful from this.

High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

I'd be really disappointed if that's the case. What a pleasure it has been having him here, hopefully he'll return soon. Exciting times are coming for the markets and I'd sure like to have him here for it.

Private Island Traders

That's awesome Hutch, I got started trading stocks too. Did you trade tech stocks during the internet bubble at all? One of my closest friends was trading back then and made his family millions during that period.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Unemployment Claims is scheduled for tomorrow morning... Just for fun, I ran the Unemployment Claims timeseries through a few forecasting functions in R. Here were the results: forecast_holt Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 206953.6 188037.8 ...

High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

I was playing around with some forecasting functions in R tonight and made a quick forecast for the US Unemployment Rate using ses(): image The naive() function produces very similar results so I'll probably use both in the future. ...

Metals (data) Mining

Haha, I know exactly what you're referring to. Yep, very good point about gold and silver not being substitutes. They had an 84.7% correlation through the 2010s, but a lot of that could be reflecting dollar movement. I've never gotten any ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Job Openings were down sharply this month: image Historically it's got a pretty good track record as a leading indicator: image

Macro Talk

I'm with you on not getting short NG during winter... And winter goes until late March so there's still time.

Oil and Natural Gas

Anyone hear from detector? Hope everything is okay.

Private Island Traders

This thread is pure gold. Excellent analysis kuroro001!

COT: The precious data ignored

Smart move mga35.

WTI Crude Oil Trading

Thanks for sharing your reasoning LloydOz. I definitely don't have anything against owning physical. I own some myself, but its more of a buy and hold forever sort of thing. For an actual trade/investment it's tough to beat instruments like IAU or ...

Gold RIGHT NOW

Nah, I didn't get started trading in earnest until 2005. Were you trading in 1970?

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

The market is basically just saying October and maybe early November. Curiously, volatility goes back down after the election. Personally I can’t make any predictions on this one, I’m just relaying the message VIX futures are sending.

Gold RIGHT NOW

There should be more volatility at least leading up to the election. The October VIX contract is trading just under 20, which is quite a bit higher than the rest of the contracts so traders are expecting volatility.

Gold RIGHT NOW

Wow, first I've heard of that but it's a great idea!

Gold RIGHT NOW