You are right. Historical prices are simply the graphical representation of human psychology. This is why I think that not even the most sophisticated computer models can never model or predict human behavior since our mind is much more complex than ...

Unadaptive trading systems are doomed

One must also take into account the fact that probabilities change as time changes. If you are using 10 years of data for statistics one should have a histogram showing also the time value. E.g. even though there were a 60% for new high when price ...

Market Statistics & Probabilities (requests welcome)

Leverage is a deadly weapon, a true double-edged sword. It can make you instantly rich or poor. The latter being reality. There is a saying that leverage kills and this I can totally identify. Averaging down in Forex requires that you do not use ...

Averaging Down - Is It Really That Bad?

One of the most popular trading strategies is called DBS which is based on breakout strategies. It is said that with this kind of system one is bound to win and if you don't then you are not following it. Hence a skilled trader ought to be ...

Poll: Is successful trading more dependent on skill than luck?

Correct! But the the price has to go up 52 pips in order to get your tp filled. Bid: 1.5000 Ask 1.5002 (Buying situation) Bid: 1.5052 Ask 1.5054 (Selling situation) OR Bid: 1.5000 Ask 1.5002 (Buying situation) Bid: 1.4952 Ask 1.4954 (Selling ...

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

lol, educate me master.

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

Ok, when you buy at 1.5002 the actual price is 1.5000 and not 1.5002 so you are already -2 pips down! So it means that the price has to go up 52 pips instead of 50 pips in order to hit the tp. And this is why the probability of winning is smaller ...

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

You get a buy signal at 1.5000, set your tp and sl to be 50 pips, spread is 2 pips. You buy at 1.5002. You are lucky and get your tp hit at 1.5052. The probability of success is not 50% but (50-2)/(50+50)=48%. The probability of failure is ...

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

No it's not. The expectancy is (tp-spread)/(sl+tp)*50-(sl+spread)/(sl+tp)*50=-2. (tp=50 pips and sl=50 pips and spread=2 pips)

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

Where? Prove where.

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

Well... it seems that none of you really get the big picture that spread really kills. When I get home I will post here a small graph showing how a big difference even a small spread can make over the long run. But the simple fact in Forex is that ...

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

The REAL reason why 95% of traders fail is the SPREAD. Let me give you all a small example: Imagine you have a tp of 30 pips and a sl of 10 pips and the spread is 2 pips (yeah in your dreams!). Now let's assume that we buy at 1.5000. But in reality ...

The Reason why 95% Traders fail

Yeah, interesting I must say! lol When I was testing by hand different magic_shift values I noticed that positive outcome peaks were located around 20, 40, 60 and 95 (just like in your graphs). And one other thing I noticed too that the smaller the ...

magic shift

Sorry, I didn't quite understand your message. So if 61 and 62 gives you the best results why do you want to disable the MM-part? To see how it performs without it? P.S. In order the EA to start working properly you need to manually insert the ...

magic shift

I don't know if it's just me or then the MT4 optimizer is full of bugs, since I have noticed that it doesn't create reliable results. (for instance, it tested that only 61 around 55-65 was the only profitable outcome for this program, which ain't ...

magic shift

Wrong words, I admit.. But still I have never before seen an equity curve performing so smoothly in 11 months test period with over than 100 trades (133 actually). Even though the parameter was optimized, yeah... Any thoughts about the magic shift ...

magic shift

Great strategy. No one can't deny it. This is the first time I have ever seen with my own eyes a method that actually works in the long run. Thank you 7-bit. And if someone is having doubts about the results, I've attached the results from my ...

magic shift