Fair enough, seems like we agree for the most part. Good luck on your upcoming forward test.

Backtest before going live, guys

Forward testing is necessary but so is backtesting. I'm not sure if you are making the argument that backtesting is useless or not, but many do and it's just such a ridiculously wrong argument. Generally people say that backtesting is useless ...

Backtest before going live, guys

You're overcomplicating it, just use a 1 period MA on close shifted back 1 bar. If the close is above the line you sell and hold until the next bar, if the close is below the line you buy and hold until the next bar. 100% winrate what could go wrong?

Agnew U-Turn method

Your posts prior to this one really don't give that impression, and in previous posts you've talked about taking every entry, getting closer to acting mechanical etc and suggested that discretion is bad. Backtesting shows you your strategy from a ...

The PriceBob Strategy

Stop loss 1 tick beyond the range 1R longs and shorts 1st entry only 2020 - present edit: screenshot changed (it was buying on shorts instead of selling for this version)

The PriceBob Strategy

In this backtest I've only taken the first entry, of course this can be adjusted but again I'd probably want to see a positive expectancy from the first entry otherwise it would be better not to take it and instead wait for a fakeout first. You say ...

The PriceBob Strategy

Not exactly the rules as written in Tom's PDF, what I've tested here is an entry on a stop 1 tick away from the extremes with the stop loss set to 1 tick the other side of the extreme, take profit is 1R. I did a 1:1 backtest because I think this ...

The PriceBob Strategy

I watched a bit of one video but the voice changer stuff put me off a bit to be honest. As for backtesting I feel like I'd start with the backtesting to try and work out these parameters and how they should be adjusted to different market conditions ...

The PriceBob Strategy

Just trying to understand your methodology because you seemed to have an issue with me saying that discretion is the edge, rather than the rules of a system in another thread, but in this one it seems like you are saying that you don't have ...

The PriceBob Strategy

How have you/will you determine that this strategy has a positive expectancy edge?

The PriceBob Strategy

No it isn't. A statistic such as X is more likely than Y does not determine an edge if you don't consider risk vs reward. If you could say something like it's more likely to go up by X points than down by X points under certain conditions then yes ...

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

Can't be that near the close because this is what this one trade from yesterday would have looked like entering and exiting at closing price (regular 1 min candles shown).

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

Everything is risk vs reward so "a higher probability that price will continue higher than that it will reverse lower" doesn't itself determine an edge. If it's as simple as you make out then it has nothing to do with mentality, just code a bot and ...

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

Almost like he can see the future isn't it? Call it skill, call it discretion, whatever you like. This is the real edge. I do agree that the mental/emotional strength to stick to the plan is very important and not easy, but many people act as if ...

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

I agree that Ju4ara should use whatever they are comfortable with, but I've never seen any system that has an edge in and of itself, it's all about the skill of the trader. I actually did a mechanical backtest of the initial strategy a while back ...

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

I've used AI to teach me how to do certain things that I didn't already know with regards to coding (kinda like using a search engine but more convenient ). I've also used to to write repetitive things more quickly. I do think that you need to have ...

Coding with AI

Hi Rick, I've seen you post something similar to this before and I have experimented with using order imbalances as a leading indicator (with a ninjatrader indicator I made), but I've not really found any use for it as of yet besides using large ...

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

One thing you could try is using a modified heiken ashi candle with the actual close rather than the (O + H + L + C)/4 close. It's something I've been experimenting with recently because I like the smoothing of the candles that HA gives, but it ...

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

This is why a lot of good traders will take a trade and then just leave the PC to let it either hit target or stop so I've heard. If you are staring at the charts waiting for price to cross the MA for an exit you might just find a reason to convince ...

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

Generally these kinds of very simple trading systems only work with discretion and won't work when you try and code them up. Here are the results from a cTrader automated backtest of a years worth of tick data. I've placed the stop loss at the other ...

Yet another simple trading system